No. 19 Florida (14-6, 5-2 SEC) travels to Colonial Life Arena on Wednesday night to face South Carolina (11-9, 2-5 SEC). Florida leads the all-time series 50-29, including a sweep of last season’s two meetings. Can the Gamecocks rebound? Our Florida vs. South Carolina prediction dives into the details, with projected lineups, key matchups, and a score forecast.
Florida vs. South Carolina Projected Lineups and Key Matchups
Florida Gators
- Boogie Fland (13.5 PPG)
- Xaivian Lee (11.2 PPG)
- Thomas Haugh (9.8 PPG)
- Alex Condon (10.6 PPG)
- Rueben Chinyelu (8.3 PPG)
South Carolina Gamecocks
- Meechie Johnson (17.8 PPG)
- Eli Ellis (10.4 PPG)
- Kobe Knox (8.5 PPG)
- Elijah Strong (12.6 PPG)
- Nordin Kapic (8.2 PPG)
Florida remains in the KenPom top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, ranks second nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding, which should give Todd Golden’s squad a significant advantage against the undersized Gamecocks.
However, the Gators rank 348th nationally from the 3-point line at 28.5% and have struggled from the charity stripe.
The Gators need a bounce-back game from forward Alex Condon, the team’s second-leading scorer, who Saturday against Auburn struggled with the Tigers’ physicality on the way to missing all four of his field-goal attempts and finishing with one point and four turnovers.
South Carolina will lean on its experienced backcourt. Meechie Johnson hit a trio of triples and finished with 19 points in the Gamecocks’ 78-68 win over LSU earlier this month, and freshman Eli Ellis continues to emerge as a reliable scoring option.
Elijah Strong scored a career-high 30 points against LSU, shooting 10-of-15 from the floor and making all four 3-point attempts.
South Carolina is 10-3 at home this season but has struggled in SEC play. The last time these teams met, Florida defeated the Gamecocks 70-69 on Jan. 22, 2025, when Will Richard attacked the lane and threw in a high-banking go-ahead layup with 4.8 seconds left.
Florida vs. South Carolina Prediction and Preview
The Gators enter this game coming off of just their second loss in six weeks, while the Gamecocks have just two wins on their resume in January.
I think those trends continue with these programs headed in different directions. Thomas Haugh is going to be the best player on the floor many nights, and I see no reason for that not to be the case in this spot.
The 6’9” junior was the primary bright spot in Saturday’s loss to Auburn with 27 points and 10 rebounds, his fourth double-double of the season and eighth 20-point effort. At the beginning of the month, he dominated Georgia to the tune of 21 points, 12 rebounds, five assists, four blocks, and three steals … we might get something like that tonight.
Florida is the top rebounding team in all the land, while South Carolina has ranked comfortably outside of the top 300 all season long. Boogie Fland was brought over from Arkansas to help Florida chase a second straight title, and while it’s been a bit of a bumpy transition, 19 assists against four turnovers in his past four games is a step in the right direction.
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The Gamecocks have three guards who average double figures and that gives them a punchers chance against anyone (Johnson has scored 20+ points in three of his past four games and made 23-of-25 freebies over his last two), but this team consistently settle for low percentage looks on the offensive end and with Florida likely to clean up every single miss, it’s hard to see them getting to 65 points.
I’m lower than the markets on Florida, generally speaking, but I’m even lower on the Gamecocks. Their profile grades in the bottom 5% of Division 1 despite a plus-.500 record and they’d have to run incredibly hot to keep this one close.
Give me the Gators in a game that requires little in the way of stress for the road team.
Prediction: Florida 78, South Carolina 59
How To Watch Florida vs. South Carolina
- Date: Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2025
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Columbia, SC
- Arena: Colonial Life Arena
- TV Channel: SEC Network
- Live Stream: FuboTV
