Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka are on course for a blockbuster semifinal clash, but both of them first need to go past their respective quarterfinal opponents, Elina Svitolina and Iva Jović. While Sabalenka’s journey has been smooth at Melbourne this year, as she has yet to drop a set, Gauff has had to go through a couple of three-set matches.
Let’s take a look at the quarterfinal matchups for both Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka.
Coco Gauff Looking To Reach Her Second Australian Open Semifinal As She Faces Elina Svitolina
Third-seeded Coco Gauff will face 12th-seeded Elina Svitolina to reach her second semifinal at the Australian Open. Gauff began her campaign in Melbourne with wins over Kamilla Rakhimova and Olga Danilović in the first two rounds. She lost the first set to Hailey Baptiste in the third round, but rallied back to win the match 3-6, 6-0, 6-3. In the fourth round, she faced 19th-seeded Karolína Muchová, winning 6-1, 3-6, 6-3.
Meanwhile, Elina Svitolina has been flawless so far, as she has yet to drop a set at this event. She started with wins over Cristina Bucsa and Linda Klimovičová in the first couple of rounds, after which she won 7-6 (4), 6-3 against 23rd-seeded Diana Shnaider in the third round. Her most impressive win came in the fourth round, as she won 6-2, 6-4 against eighth-seeded Mirra Andreeva.
Gauff has a 2-1 advantage against Svitolina in the head-to-head, and has a 67% win probability as per the PFSN Exclusive Simulator. Gauff has a better first-serve stat, having won 75% of points behind that shot, whereas Svitolina has won 69%. However, the Ukrainian has won 53% of second-serve points compared to Gauff’s 48%, and has a better break-point conversion rate of 59% compared to the American’s 41%.
The match has the prospect of being a three-set match, and if Svitolina can assert pressure on the Gauff serve, she has a more than decent chance. But Gauff does have a good record in three-set matches at Grand Slams and will have the slight edge going in the match.
Pick – Gauff to win in three sets
Aryna Sabalenka Aiming To Win Her Third Title in Melbourne As She Faces Iva Jović in the Quarterfinals
Top seed and two-time champion, Aryna Sabalenka, will face 18-year-old sensation Iva Jović from the USA in the quarterfinals of the 2026 Australian Open. Sabalenka has yet to drop a set at Melbourne this year, winning her matches in straight sets against the likes of Tiantsoa Rakatomanga Rajaonah, Bai Zhuoxuan, Anastasia Potapova, and 17th-seeded Victoria Mboko to reach her 13th consecutive quarterfinal at Grand Slams.
On the other hand, Jović has yet to drop a set as well, winning her first couple of matches against Katie Volynets and Priscilla Hon. The young American got her biggest victory in the third round, winning 6-2, 7-6 (3) over seventh-seeded Jasmine Paolini, followed by a 6-0, 6-1 drubbing of Yulia Putintseva in the fourth round to reach her maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal.
The two players have not played each other, with Sabalenka having an overwhelming 91% win probability per the PFSN Exclusive Simulator. On paper, the Belarusian is ahead of every possible metric compared to her opponent, which is natural, as she is the world’s top-ranked player, while her opponent is an 18-year-old who has just started on the WTA Tour.
The World No. 1 should be able to get it done in straight sets and reach the semifinal for a fourth consecutive time in Melbourne.
Pick – Sabalenka to win in straight sets
