Seventh-seeded Jasmine Paolini will look to keep her Australian Open campaign on track as she takes on 29th-seeded Iva Jovic. Paolini is looking to get to the fourth round of the Melbourne Major for the second time in her career, whereas Jovic is looking to get to the second week of a Major for the first time in her career.
Jasmine Paolini vs Iva Jovic Details
Date: Jan. 23, 2026 (Jan. 22 in ET)
Tournament: Australian Open 2026
Round: Third Round (Round of 32)
Venue: Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
Surface: Outdoor Hard
Category:Â Grand Slam
Live Telecast: Tennis Channel, TSN, RDS, Sky Sports
Paolini vs Jovic Head-to-Head
Paolini has won both her matches against Jovic, leading head-to-head 2-0. The first match was a close encounter when they met at Indian Wells in 2025, with the Italian winning 7-6 (3), 1-6, 6-3. The next time they played, Paolini secured an easier win, winning 6-3, 6-3 at the 2025 US Open.
Paolini began her season at the United Cup, winning one match and losing one. At the Australian Open, the seventh seed has yet to drop a set. The Italian had a smooth sailing in the first round, winning 6-1, 6-2 against Belarusian qualifier Aliaksandra Sasnovich. In the second round, the Italian maintained her dominance, winning 6-2, 6-3 against Magdalena Frech.
Jovic has had a tremendous start to the 2026 season, reaching the semifinals in Auckland and then finishing runner-up in Hobart, losing to Elina Svitolina and Elisabetta Cocciaretto, respectively. At the Australian Open, Jovic started with a 6-2, 6-3 win over compatriot Katie Volynets in the first round. In the next round, she won 6-1, 6-2 against home favorite Priscilla Hon.
Paolini vs Jovic Prediction
Paolini has won 70% of her first-serve points in her two matches, but she has faced 15 break points. However, she has done well under pressure, saving 12 of those. On return, she has converted 10 of the 20 break point opportunities she has had in the match.
Meanwhile, Jovis has won 75% of first-serve points, but the American teenager has maintained her superiority in matches through her second serve, behind which she has won 68% of points. She has converted 9 of the 16 break point opportunities in her two matches, while facing only three break points on her serve.
Paolini lacks the power on her first serve and struggles to win free points on that shot. That’s the opening for Jovic as she can attack Paolini’s first and second serves. On the other hand, Paolini is a great mover on court and creates break-point opportunities for herself during return games.
The match could feature many break-point opportunities, and whoever wins those points will have the upper hand.
Being the seventh seed and having a perfect record against Jovic, Paolini is the favorite to win the upcoming match. This has been reflected in the PFSN Simulator, which has given the Italian a 75% win probability.
Pick– Paolini to win in straight sets
