Bo Nix’s season is over due to him breaking a bone in his ankle in Saturday’s win, and while that’s a gut punch to the Broncos, it may not stop the AFC’s top-seed from representing the conference in The Big Game.
Jarrett Stidham has played for three teams since being a fourth-round pick of the New England Patriots back in 2019. Coming out of Auburn, he was praised for his ability to diagnose coverages and execute.
He was never viewed as an elite prospect, and vertical shots aren’t something we expect to see in bulk next week with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
But he does have a specific skill, a creative head coach, and an opponent, no matter who it is, that can be vulnerable in that exact area.
Jarrett Stidham’s Path to Surprising on Championship Sunday
Nix has had his moments this season, but he’s failed to grade better than a C+ in our PFSN NFL QB Impact Metric in just three of 18 appearances this season.
Even with the generally average production, this team has just one loss since September. Stidham doesn’t have to play at a Hall of Fame level to win the 60 minutes that stand ahead of him, regardless of who advances from today’s Texans-Patriots game.
We only have 197 professional passes from Stidham in which to judge, and while he has as many touchdowns as interceptions (eight), there is an interesting thread to pull.
Since 2022, 84 quarterbacks have thrown at least 125 passes, and here is where Stidham ranks.
Passes Thrown Short Of The Sticks
- Completion Percentage: 76.5% (16th)
- Yards Per Attempt: 5.9 (16th)
Passes Thrown Beyond The Sticks
- Completion Percentage: 45.9% (62nd)
- Yards Per Attempt: 10.2 (29th)
At the very least, that’s interesting. Nix’s average depth of throw dropped by 21.3% when comparing his first 11 games to his last seven, so it’s not as if Stidham’s strength is drastically different from the direction Sean Payton has been trending as the importance of the games has increased this winter.
- Evan Engram’s RAC sits at 6.0 yards (2024: 3.2)
- Marvin Mims leads 86 WRs in RAC per reception (min. 100 targets) since 2024
- Denver RBs: 8.2 RAC per reception (2024: 6.9)
Courtland Sutton and this receiving nucleus are capable of taking the top off defenses when given the opportunity, but make no mistake: Payton prioritizes getting the ball to athletes in space, and that might just be crazy enough to work.
Weeks 1-14 vs. Passes Thrown Short Of The Sticks
- Patriots: 0.8% TD rate (2nd best)
- Texans: 65.3% completion (best)
Weeks 15-WC vs. Passes Thrown Short Of The Sticks
- Patriots: 2.4% TD rate (7th worst)
- Texans: 79.5% completion (7th worst)
Back in Week 16 of 2023, the second most recent start Stidham has made, he connected on Lil’Jordan Humphrey for a touchdown that showcased a little bit of everything that gives him the chance to wear the glass slipper this weekend.
Some mobility, a nice throw while on the move, and the ability to put his teammate in a position to make a play with the ball in his hands.
Also in that game, Stidham completed all eight of his passes to running backs. Fantasy managers aren’t going to need him to put up gaudy numbers for him to pay off his price tag, and his style of going about his business makes him an interesting stacking option.
Pair him with RJ Harvey? Get creative with a receiver?
I’ll be diving into that after we get the matchup and prices, but I’m going to check in as more optimistic than the rest of the industry. On the final day of January in 2023, Payton accepted a contract from the Nuggets, and by March 23, Stidham had a two-year deal worth $10 million.
This past March, he inked an extension with $7 million guaranteed (two years, $12 million).
Those things don’t happen at the quarterback position if the coach isn’t comfortable with what he has. The gameplan may be a bit watered down, but if we can get 30-35 attempts, his fantasy numbers stand to surpass expectations, and the Denver win equity sits higher than the public seems to believe based on the reactions that we saw last night following the announcement of the Nix injury.
