Why Matthew Stafford’s Red Zone Heater Has Me Taking the Rams Over Caleb Williams

The Rams can explain every loss this season. The Bears rank 23rd in fourth-quarter leads while LA ranks second. Who comes out on top?

The fifth-seeded Rams travel to Chicago to take on the second-seeded Bears after both teams survived barn-burning Wild Card games over the weekend.

The public is siding with Los Angeles to advance to the NFL’s final four, but it’ll require 60 minutes of high-level play against a Caleb Williams-led team that has zero quit.

Let’s take a look at these resumes and see who holds the fantasy football edge when all angles are covered.

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Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Preview

After a 12-5 regular season that featured a six-game winning streak in the middle of the season, the Rams survived a strong effort from the Panthers over the weekend, winning the game with a 19-yard Colby Parkinson touchdown with 38 seconds left on the clock.

Was it a great performance?

Not at all. Carolina scored a touchdown on all four of their red zone trips, but Los Angeles stopped them on all three of their fourth-down attempts and was relentless in targeting their top two pass catchers (Puka Nacua and Davante Adams saw 31 of 42 targets).

They will need to be better to survive and advance to the NFC Title Game. They’ve created pressure at the fourth-highest rate this season, and of all the things that Williams did well on Saturday night against the Packers, he was just 6-of-16 with an interception when pressured.

If they can slow this red-hot Chicago offense, they are sitting pretty. Stafford has completed 16 of 21 red zone passes (eight touchdowns) over his past four games, and if this game goes to script, the winner is going to be the team who is best at turning red zone trips into seven, not three, points.

We’ve seen Los Angeles trend toward a running-back-by-committee backfield, and the ability to rotate is valuable against a defense that ranks 29th in yards allowed per carry to running backs before contact.

If you’re building out a DFS lineup or sweating a postseason event, it’s Kyren Williams over Blake Corum for me. The starter has multiple receptions in four straight, a level of versatility that should be on full display in this spot.

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That’s not to say that Corum can’t produce, but with Williams showing fluidity in the passing game and the second-year back not having a 10-yard carry in three of his past four games, he enters this game with the lower production floor.

Puka Nacua is the best target-earning receiver in the league, and Davante Adams has put up historic receiving numbers in scoring position this season. Those two are reliable, and if this Parkinson heater continues (nine scores on 45 receptions this season), the Rams are a good bet to reach 30 points in this spot.

Will it be enough?

Chicago Bears Fantasy Preview

Earlier this week, I made the case for Caleb Williams being a viable DFS option in the Wild Card, but the long-term outlook being shaky.

He’s been as good as anyone in clutch situations, and if Chicago can keep this game tight for 55 minutes, they won’t be afraid of the moment with their season in the balance.

Last weekend, we saw Jalen Coker light up the Rams (9-134-1 on 12 targets), and the Bears have three receivers who are more than capable of deciding this game. Rome Odunze, Luther Burden and DJ Moore all saw six or seven targets against the Packers and, at one time or another this season, have proven capable of thriving in the right matchup.

The wide receiver room is deep, but none of them were the story last week. In the win, Colston Loveland became the first rookie tight end to ever have eight catches and 100 receiving yards in a playoff game.

The game was exceptional, but it was far from out of the blue. The former Wolverine saw 23 passes thrown his way over the final two weeks of the regular season and averaged 12.3 yards per catch during the regular season.

His skill set has transferred without any issues to the professional level, and we saw a featured tight end do damage against this Rams defense in Week 18 (Trey McBride: 28.6% target share with a team-high seven receptions).

If we are stacking up the hierarchy of these pass catchers, I like the two rookies above the rest. Moore and Odunze are capable of uncovering, but they don’t carry the upside of the other two, and with this game potentially a shootout, splash plays are going to be must-haves.

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Like Los Angeles, we have a committee to deal with. D’Andre Swift held the featured role over Kyle Monangai, not a surprise with Ben Johnson deferring to the veteran. This offense is going to flow through their franchise quarterback, but the offensive line is capable and some semblance of balance is going to be needed.

Rams vs. Bears Prediction

The Rams are the popular pick, even with what could be blustery conditions. I do think they benefit from the time of this game (6:30 p.m. EST), but there certainly is a home-field advantage to consider.

This is a trust-the-process spot for me. In evaluating this season as a whole, the Rams rank second in percentage of offensive snaps in the fourth quarter played with a lead (63.4%, behind only the Patriots) while the Bears rank 23rd (31.3%, worse than the Dolphins, the Commanders and others).

Los Angeles has five losses this season, and I can reason my way through each of them:

  • Week 3 at Eagles: Super Bowl champions, Stafford’s back still a question
  • Week 5 vs. 49ers: Short week
  • Week 13 at Panthers: 6-1 edge in red zone drives, poor turnover fortune
  • Week 16 at Seahawks: Short week
  • Week 17 at Falcons: No Adams, uncharacteristic three-interception game

Only the Cowboys and Jets allow a touchdown on a higher percentage of passes than the Bears, and I’m not betting against the possible MVP of this league in a spot like that. Combine that with a run defense that ranks ninth best at limiting yardage before contact, and I don’t think this game is tight enough for the miracle Bears to pull it out at the end.

Prediction: Rams 30, Bears 20

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