The 2026 NFL Playoffs get underway today with the Wild Card Weekend, so let’s rank the teams in the big dance. Which squads have the best shot at hoisting the Lombardi Trophy next month? Let’s see how the teams stack up in PFSN’s model and metrics.
These rankings are decided entirely by PFSN’s analytical model, rather than the author’s opinion of the teams.
14) Carolina Panthers
Entering Week 18, the Carolina Panthers had the chance to secure first place in the NFC South and pick up their first winning season since 2017. Unfortunately for them, they lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16-14 and dropped to 8-9.
Fortunately for the Panthers, though, the Atlanta Falcons’ win on Sunday clinched them the NFC South. They enter the 2026 NFL postseason as easily the weakest of the 14 playoff teams, and PFSN’s model is very low on them — viewing Carolina as the No. 25 team in the league (and worst team in the NFC South) as of the end of the regular season.
However, anything can happen in the playoffs, and Carolina has pulled off some impressive upsets throughout the season, including a shocking 31-28 victory against their wild-card opponent, the Los Angeles Rams, in Week 13.
13) Los Angeles Chargers
In spite of a 19-3 loss to the Broncos on Sunday, the Los Angeles Chargers found themselves already locked into a playoff spot before Week 18. The Chargers closed out their regular season with consecutive losses, though their 11-6 record is still more than respectable.
As the No. 7 seed in the AFC, the Chargers head on the road to face a red-hot Patriots team in the Wild Card round. That said, Los Angeles has a more playoff-experienced roster, which could be their key to picking up the upset.
12) Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers turned back the clock with a clutch performance on Sunday night, and though a missed extra-point attempt by Chris Boswell kept things up for grabs, the Pittsburgh Steelers pulled it off. With their season on the line, they beat the Ravens to win the AFC North.
This marks the first time since 2020 that the Steelers have won the AFC North, though they’ve made the playoffs in four of those five seasons since. The Texans will be a tough Wild Card matchup for them, but having the Pittsburgh crowd behind them in their home-field advantage should help.
11) Green Bay Packers
Going into the postseason, the Green Bay Packers are losers of four games in a row. They finished the 2025-26 NFL regular season with a 9-7-1 record due to their 16-3 loss to the Vikings. The Packers admittedly sat a lot of their starters, but there’s still a lack of momentum to close out the year.
The Packers will take on the Bears in the Wild Card round. It’s a series the two teams have split this year, and both teams have picked up wins in front of their respective home crowds. This playoff game will take place in Chicago, but Green Bay will look to break the tie and advance to the divisional round.
10) San Francisco 49ers
Though the San Francisco 49ers had already clinched a playoff spot going into Week 18, they still had the No. 1 seed in the NFC to play for. Hosting the Seahawks last Saturday night, their offense failed to get the job done in a 13-3 loss.
The 49ers end the year with a strong 12-5 record, but their offense looked lackluster just one week after a stellar outing against the Bears. There’s plenty of talent on this San Francisco roster, and they shouldn’t be taken lightly in the postseason. That said, they’re definitely not unbeatable, especially as a Wild Card team playing on the road.
9) Chicago Bears
Last Sunday was a disappointing result on the field for the Chicago Bears, but because of what happened off the field, it all worked out for them. They ended the regular season with a three-point loss to the Lions, but because of the Eagles’ Week 18 loss, they were still able to secure the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
Chicago will face the Packers in the Wild Card round, which should be an even matchup between two heated divisional rivals. Securing the No. 2 seed in the conference is extremely helpful, as they’re guaranteed at least two games at Soldier Field in the postseason if they make it to the divisional round.
8) New England Patriots
Drake Maye didn’t play enough to put up monster numbers on Sunday, but his strong play on a limited sample size will help his NFL MVP case. He helped lead the New England Patriots to a dominant 38-10 win over the Dolphins to close out the regular season.
The Patriots’ flip from a 4-13 record in 2024 to a 14-3 record in 2025 under Mike Vrabel has been nothing short of amazing. They’ll take on the Chargers in the Wild Card round, and they’ll have the chance to play at least two home games in the playoffs if they advance to the divisional round.
7) Philadelphia Eagles
Thanks to a Week 18 loss to the Commanders, the Philadelphia Eagles lost out on the No. 2 seed in the NFC and secured the No. 3 seed. Considering the Eagles benched a lot of their starters in the game, however, it doesn’t seem like they were willing to risk injuries to key performers with relatively unlikely odds.
The Eagles will host the 49ers in the Wild Card round, which figures to be one of the most enticing matchups in the first round of the playoffs. The defending Super Bowl champions have had some bumps along the way, but their roster is too talented to ignore as a potential threat.
6) Houston Texans
The Houston Texans continued their hot streak on Sunday with their ninth win in a row, overcoming an uncharacteristically poor defensive performance with a stellar offensive performance. With their win over the Colts, Houston finished the season at 12-5.
The Texans are the AFC’s No. 5 seed, granting them a matchup against the Steelers in the Wild Card round. As far as playoff matchups go, it’s as favorable as you can get in that conference. The Texans’ pass rush should be tough to stop in the postseason.
5) Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills have won five of their last six games, and their only loss came by one point against another playoff team in the Eagles. They ended the year on a high note with a dominant 35-8 victory over the Jets.
Heading into a playoff matchup with the Jaguars, the Bills have a difficult task ahead of them since they’ll be going on the road in the postseason. That said, the albatross that is beating the Chiefs in the playoffs won’t be an issue this year. Could this be the season Buffalo finally wins the Super Bowl?
4) Jacksonville Jaguars
With eight wins in a row heading into the postseason, the Jacksonville Jaguars are playing their best football at just the right time. They throttled the Titans on Sunday, ending the regular season with a 13-4 record and first place in the AFC South locked down.
The Jaguars have a tough task ahead of them in the Wild Card round, as they take on the Bills. That said, the fact that the game is being played in Jacksonville helps, and the Jaguars’ recent win streak indicates it’s absolutely a game they can win.
3) Denver Broncos
It was a regular season to remember for the Denver Broncos, and it ended on a high note. They defeated the Chargers last Sunday, improving their record to 14-3. As a result, they earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a first-round bye.
The AFC now runs through Denver, and given their staunch defense, the thin air, and the winter weather in Colorado, that won’t be an easy environment for a road opponent to win in. We’ve seen that this season, as the Broncos have only lost once at home all season.
2) Los Angeles Rams
On the backs of Matthew Stafford’s four passing touchdowns, the Los Angeles Rams finished their regular season with a strong win over the Cardinals last Sunday. They dropped out of the top spot in PFSN’s model, but they’re still firmly ahead of most of the competition.
The Rams get to take on the Panthers in the first round of the playoffs. Though Carolina has the higher seed due to their status as the division champions of the NFC South, it’s clear Los Angeles is the more talented team. It’s just a matter of whether or not they’ll execute.
1) Seattle Seahawks
With their win on the road over the 49ers on Saturday, the Seattle Seahawks secured the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They finished the regular season with a 14-3 record and locked down both a first-round bye and home-field advantage through the entirety of the playoffs.
The Seahawks’ defense ranks third in the NFL in PFSN’s Defense Impact metric. A dynamic rushing duo, a strong quarterbacking season from Sam Darnold, and an OPOY-caliber year from Jaxon Smith-Njigba have carried their offense. The NFC runs through Seattle this postseason, which is a daunting prospect for opposing teams to consider.
