The NFL regular season may be over, but that doesn’t mean fantasy football has to stop. There are a number of variations of playoff fantasy leagues. This week, we are going to focus on one-and-done formats with our top start ’em picks for the Divisional Round.
What Are One-and-Done Leagues?
Before we get to the picks, here is a very quick primer on one-and-done playoff fantasy football leagues.
Most leagues require a starting lineup similar to this: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, Flex. Each week, every manager in your league has the full player pool available to choose from.
But there’s a catch.
Once you use a player, you can’t use him again. That’s where the strategy comes in. You need to construct the highest-scoring lineup while making sure you still have options for subsequent rounds.
Below, you will find our recommended picks for the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. These will not simply be the best players at each position. Each player is carefully selected to maximize scoring potential throughout the entirety of the postseason.
Top Start ‘Em Picks for the Divisional Round
The wide-open nature of this postseason was on full display last week. I wrote here that the Carolina Panthers were the only team we could be very confident would lose.
Well…they almost won. The only truly noncompetitive team was the Steelers (and kind of the Chargers), which, in hindsight, should’ve been easy to see because Pittsburgh is never competitive in the playoffs.
We saw two No. 6 seeds win. The second-seeded Bears needed a frenzied comeback. The Patriots won, but did not look overly dominant. Things remain wide open.
Before we get to the picks, full disclosure here. I did make some adjustments to my lineup later in the week. Such is the nature of wanting to get this out early.
What I am going to do to combat that is give you my picks for this weekend based on the players I have available. Then, I will give you a quick second lineup as if every player remained an option. That should allow you to mix and match based on whichever players you burned last week.
QB: Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
One of the tweaks I made last week was to go with Josh Allen instead of Justin Herbert. My logic was that, at quarterback, there will always be a path to having an available option each round, regardless of whether the guys you pick advance if you play it correctly.
I wasn’t overly confident in the Bills winning and felt like that was the best matchup we’d get for Josh Allen. I did not want to leave him on the board, potentially unused.
It worked out in that Allen had a productive game, but obviously, the Bills won, and now Allen is off the table. The only way to ensure I can’t run out of quarterbacks is to take Bo Nix.
Obviously, this isn’t the most ideal pick. The Bills allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. But if you look around the playoffs, there aren’t many good options.
The QBs you want to play (Brock Purdy, Josh Allen, Drake Maye) have tough matchups. While the ones with easy matchups (Sam Darnold, C.J. Stroud) aren’t exactly great fantasy QBs.
If you go into the Super Bowl with no QB available, you lose. In the absence of a clear and obvious top option this week, I am opting to ensure I can’t run out of quarterbacks.
Trevor Lawrence had a solid fantasy day against this defense last week.
Nix averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game this season. As great as the Broncos’ defense is, Allen should be good enough to force at least a moderate amount of scoring.
MORE: PFSN’s FREE DFS Lineup Optimizer
Most importantly, taking Nix ensures I will have Maye or Stroud available next week and then the NFC QB for the Super Bowl.
RB: Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks
It’s important to have the most available players for the Super Bowl. But if you don’t score points along the way, what does it matter?
Teams with two viable options at running back are kind of cheat codes. It gives fantasy managers the option to choose one, knowing another will still be on the table even if they win.
I do think the Seahawks win this game. That makes it much more palatable to take the 49ers. The problem is we just saw these teams play two weeks ago and San Francisco didn’t score a touchdown.
Let’s say we load up on the 49ers, and they lose, allowing us to save all of our Seahawks. What good does that do us if the players we take don’t score any points?
This is the spot to use Zach Charbonnet. It’s the best matchup the Seahawks will have the rest of the playoffs. He scored in both regular-season meetings and remains the clear goal-line back.
RB: D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears
We have now reached the part of the program where we must stake a claim. The bet is that the Rams and Bears have a back-and-forth contest with Los Angeles emerging victorious.
This is not a great matchup for D’Andre Swift. But, again, there aren’t any truly favorable running back matchups.
Swift is the lead back, the pass-catching back, and gets more goal-line work. Plus, even if the Bears do advance, Kyle Monangai is viable.
Chuba Hubbard scored twice against this defense last week. Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III had success against the Rams earlier in the season. If the gamble is that the Bears lose, we have to use Swift now.
WR: DJ Moore, Chicago Bears
The great part about a team like the Bears is the abundance of options. Much like with Swift, we will still have players to choose from if the Bears win. Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III remain on the table.
To be clear, you can use any Bears receiver this week. I’m going with DJ Moore because he seems to have reestablished himself as the go-to guy ahead of Burden.
And for what it’s worth, the Rams actually allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. They got torched by Jalen Coker last week. This defense is beatable. We just have to hope we picked the correct Bears WR.
WR: Troy Franklin, Denver Broncos
Call this one an educated hunch. I do believe the Bills win this game, but I am no more confident than I was last week. In theory, that should make it more logical to use Courtland Sutton.
Last week, this process led me to use Parker Washington over both Jakobi Meyers and Brian Thomas Jr. It’s safe to say that worked out as well as possible.
Franklin has been playing fewer than 50% of the snaps lately. But he more closely resembles the role Washington played and thrived in compared to Sutton, who will be parked on the perimeter the entire game.
We also have the added bonus that if the Broncos win, there isn’t really a Bills WR we’d feel bad about leaving on the board, and Sutton will remain in play.
WR: Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
I am not convinced the Rams are a lock to win this game. Much like the decision to burn Josh Allen last week, it would be devastating to my chances of winning to have Puka Nacua go out without getting a chance to use him.
The reality is that everyone will have limited options in the Super Bowl. And if you have a ton of great options, you probably don’t have that many banked points. The goal is to score the most points. It doesn’t matter when.
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Even if the Rams win this game, I will still have Davante Adams, Kyren Williams, Blake Corum, and their medley of tight ends available. This is very likely to be the highest-scoring game of the weekend. The Bears allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. It’s time.
TE: Jake Tonges, San Francisco 49ers
It is most unfortunate that George Kittle went down with a torn Achilles. But for anyone who used Kittle last week, it kind of resets the 49ers TE option.
Jake Tonges is the rare handcuff tight end. He has no fantasy value while Kittle is healthy, but is a weekly TE1 when Kittle is not. Tonges averaged 12.3 PPG this season in the six games Kittle missed.
For as great as Seattle’s defense is, they were actually below average at defending the tight end. The ability to use Tonges this week in a game the 49ers are likely to lose is a gift that we should accept.
DEF: New England Patriots
The strategy at defense and kicker is similar to that at quarterback. Just make sure there is a 0% chance you can run out of options.
Since I used the Texans last week, using the Patriots this week guarantees that the Bills or Broncos will be available in the next round. Then, no matter what happens, I will have an NFC team at my disposal in the Super Bowl.
It also doesn’t hurt that the Patriots just held the Chargers to three points, and Stroud looked like the worst quarterback in the playoffs against the Steelers.
K: Andy Borregales, New England Patriots
I wound up swapping to Ka’imi Fairbairn last week. So the process is the same as it is with defense. By going with Andy Borregales, I can guarantee that I won’t run out of options. The fact that the Patriots will have more trouble finishing drives against an elite Texans defense is a bonus.
Optimal Lineup if Every Player Is Available
Here is what I would go with if I had the entire player pool as an option. Given that you probably didn’t play my exact lineup last week, feel free to mix and match choices from here with what I am actually playing based on the players remaining.
QB: Caleb Williams
The only reason I’m not going with Caleb Williams is that it puts me at risk of having no quarterback in the Super Bowl if the Bears and Bills both make it.
RB: Christian McCaffrey and D’Andre Swift
If you have Christian McCaffrey, use him now.
WR: DJ Moore, Troy Franklin, and Jauan Jennings
Same as above
TE: Colston Loveland
I am not upset at all about the decision to use Colston Loveland last week. He is, by far, the best tight end available. If you didn’t use him last week, now is the time.
DEF: Houston Texans
If you have the best defense in football, use them.
K: N/A
Just take a kicker that guarantees you won’t run out of kickers for the Super Bowl.
