Top seed Aryna Sabalenka and fifth seed Madison Keys will lock horns in what promises to be a thrilling quarterfinal at the Brisbane International. Whoever out of the two comes out on top, will take on either third seed Elena Rybakina or 11th seed Karolína Muchová in the semifinals of the WTA 500 event.
Sabalenka and Keys both received byes to the second round, with the Belarussian starting her 2026 singles campaign with a dominant 6-0, 6-1 drubbing of Cristina Bucșa. The World No. 1 then faced Sorana Sorana Cîrstea in the third round and beat the Romanian 6-3, 6-3 to secure her place in the quarterfinals.
Like Sabalenka, Keys also won her opening singles match in 2026 in straight sets, beating compatriot McCartney Kessler 6-4, 6-3 to set up a third-round clash with 12th seed Diana Shnaider. This fixture proved to be a thrilling contest as the two played some fine tennis for three hours. All of the match’s three sets went to tiebreaks, with Keys winning 6-7(5), 7-6(5), 7-6(4) to book her place in the quarterfinals of the Brisbane International.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys Match Details
Date: Jan. 9, 2025
Tournament: Brisbane International 2026
Round: Quarterfinals
Venue: Queensland Tennis Centre, Brisbane, Australia
Category: WTA 500
Surface: Outdoor Hard
Live Telecast: Tennis Channel, TSN, Sky Sports
Sabalenka vs. Keys Head-to-Head
The two have had seven prior encounters on the WTA Tour, with Sabalenka leading their head-to-head 5-2. Last year, they locked horns twice, with Keys beating the World No. 16-3, 2-6, 7-5 to win the Australian Open. Sabalenka then trounced her 6-0, 6-1 in the semifinals in Indian Wells.
MORE: Aryna Sabalenka Fires ‘Revenge’ Warning to Madison Keys As Pair Set Up Brisbane Clash
Sabalenka vs. Keys Prediction
Sabalenka will enter the match as the heavy favorite to win given her dominant form. Keys’ form tapered a little during the end of last season, as she exited the US Open in the first round, then did not play another match till the WTA Finals, where she lost her first two round-robin matches before withdrawing.
However, the American produced some fine performances in 2025 and is more than capable of doing the same against Sabalenka on her day.
The Belarusian has served six aces and won 47 out of 60 points (78.33%) on her first serve so far in Brisbane. Sabalenka’s hard-hitting game has seen her be the best player in the world over the last two seasons and her composure on court has only increased during that period.
Keys is one of the cleanest hitters of a tennis ball over the past few years and she will look to be as aggressive as she can in order to register a third victory over Sabalenka. The American has won 85 out of 127 (66.93%) points on her first serve so far in Brisbane, serving 11 aces and six double-faults.
While Keys is capable of grinding out wins as she did against Shnaider, Sabalenka might be too good for her and the Belarusian should manage to win and reach the semifinals in Brisbane.
Pick: Sabalenka to win in straight sets.
