The fantasy football landscape shifts dramatically after Week 17, as unexpected performances and emerging storylines reshape our expectations for the season ahead. Some players exceed all projections, while others leave managers scratching their heads, wondering if early concerns were justified or merely a case of growing pains.
Saturday night’s Green Bay Packers-Baltimore Ravens matchup could provide crucial clarity on several key start/sit situations for both the NFC and AFC powerhouses. Get ready to dive deep into the developments that could make or break your fantasy team’s Week 17 performance.
Jordan Love, QB
Jordan Love wasn’t exactly lighting up the Bears on Saturday night before taking the head-on sack that resulted in him not finishing the first half or returning after halftime.
He has just four top-10 finishes at the position this season, so hopefully you’re not relying on him in a significant way at this point, but Malik Willis (shoulder) isn’t a bad streaming option if you’re in a tough spot and he’s active. He brings with him the type of plus-athleticism that is a cheat code in our game, and there’s a chance this game shoots out in a big way.
“Packers QB” will be ranked as a top-12 play for me this week, provided that Love or Willis is active.
Emanuel Wilson, RB
Did you know that it’s been over a month since Emanuel Wilson has been stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage on a carry?
That’s four straight games, and while his volume wasn’t anything to write home about until Josh Jacobs (knee) started being held back last week, we are still talking about a 23-carry sample size.
I don’t think he’s in a position to work into a committee role if Jacobs is ruled healthy, but what are the odds that happen this week?
I still like Jacobs, even a banged-up version of him, to lead this backfield in touches, but you wouldn’t have to twist my arm to project Wilson for 10-12.
How much value does that hold?
Realistically, not much. He has seven games this season (including four straight) without a single target earned, and if Jacobs is anywhere close to marginally healthy, I think he’s the favorite to get the red zone work. That said, double-digit touches are hard to find this time of year, and that is why Wilson, at the very least, shouldn’t be available in any competitive league.
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I don’t currently have him ranked as a starter in most formats, but in a deeper league with multiple flex spots, I could see how you might consider him a starter. Rostering Wilson is more about blocking your opponent from potentially having an RB2 should Jacobs sit: I’m not counting on it. Still, if I can take away any path to production for my opposition, you better believe I’m doing it!
Josh Jacobs, RB
And this, friends, is why the NFL is a game for gladiators.
Jacobs was on crutches during the work week and signed up for having 11 grown athletes chase him around the field on Saturday. I slept funny on Monday and was wondering aloud if I’d have to pull out of playing HORSE with my nephew on New Year’s Eve.
There are levels to this, and NFL players are unique in comprehension. We’ve become so immune to superhuman recoveries that defy logic that when something like the Jacobs situation happens, we are taken aback.
- Quarter 1: 52.9% snap share
- Quarter 2: 31.8% snap share
- Quarter 3: 60% snap share
- Quarter 4 and Overtime: 12.5% snap share
When an extended rest was possible, Jacobs was trying to give it a go, but his health simply wasn’t sustainable, and that shouldn’t be viewed as a surprise.
Again, he opened the week on crutches.
So, yeah, you can complain about his 14 touches netting just 4.8 PPR points for you, but if you consider the facts we had entering the game, you were the one who elected to click him in with the risk known.
It doesn’t sound as if he did any additional damage to his bulky knee, and with Green Bay battling for that final playoff spot, I think it’s more likely than not that we see him suit up again on Saturday night.
Wilson is a must-roster at this point because we simply don’t know. Could the Pack rest Jacobs this weekend with the hope that he’s close to healthy for Week 18 and (hopefully) a playoff game or two?
At the end of the day, I think you’re playing Jacobs if we believe he can handle 15+ touches. This run game worked last week (Wilson ran for 82 yards on 14 carries, and that was without his average being inflated by a single attempt), and with potential chaos/limitations at the QB position, I’d expect this offense to function through the handoff.
I currently have Jacobs as in and handling 15-17 touches. That’s obviously not the 20+ that we were getting through the first two months, but he is averaging a career-high 0.90 PPR points per touch this season, and that would be enough to get us home, even at lesser usage.
Christian Watson, WR
Christian Watson led the Packers in targets on Saturday night and didn’t appear to be significantly hampered by the chest/shoulder issue that forced him out of Week 15’s loss in Denver.
What appeared to hamper him, in addition to a Love injury, was an increased level of attention.
In Week 14, he turned four targets into four catches, 89 yards, and a pair of touchdowns against the Bears, production that the defense was clearly hellbent on preventing a repeat of.
This is the concern with the Green Bay receivers as a whole, and we saw it with Romeo Doubs earlier in the season: they are all secondary options that struggle with primary coverage.
Any of them (Dontayvion Wicks had his moment on Thanksgiving, and we keep wishcasting it upon Jayden Reed) can shine in spots, but the second they succeed at such a level where defenses gear schemes their way, the bottom falls out.
That raises the question: How will Baltimore defend itself?
We’ve seen them struggle with size a bit (Keon Coleman had the huge fourth quarter against them back in Week 1, while Rome Odunze, DK Metcalf, and Ja’Marr Chase (twice) have all burned them for over 18 PPR points more recently.
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Saturday was a red flag (the end zone targets were never real opportunities to score as much as they were reasonable throwaways in his direction). Still, in this matchup in a prominent spot and without any other signs of life from this receiving core, Watson remains my top-ranked GB WR and a flex play in most formats for me this weekend.
Jayden Reed, WR
Jayden Reed was a no-show for much of Saturday night until the game was on the line.
And then they started to scheme him up looks in the short passing game to see if he could spike a play?
I have questions. If that was your catch-up plan, it was presumably one that you felt good about: why not try it earlier? Reed ran 16 routes in the first half and didn’t have a single ball thrown his way in a game that was their most important of the season.
Seems curious.
His leading the Packers in routes run (26, 64.3% snap share) was a positive step and consistent with what we’ve seen recently, but there is an empty-calorie nature to his playing time (he has yet to clear 55 receiving yards in a game this season).
If Green Bay wants to make the playoffs, let alone have a chance to pull off an upset, they will need him to get going to bridge their physical run game with the shot-taking targets that go Watson’s way.
Maybe the team can figure that out over the next two weeks, but I’m done trying to be early: Reed isn’t a viable fantasy starter until we get proof of concept.
Matthew Golden, WR
Matthew Golden was shut out against the Bears on Saturday, the second time the Bears held the speedy rookie without a grab this month.
Just three times this year has he caught more than three passes in a game, in what has amounted to a lost season with no clear direction for growth (does his role matter if Watson can stay on the field)?
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The Packers gave him a red-zone carry on their first drive last week, but if he’s just a high-profile gadget player, his fantasy outlook for next season is limited at best.
He’s firmly off your radar for the remainder of this season, and without a roster change, I can’t imagine going this direction with any level of confidence this summer.
Romeo Doubs, WR
Talk about an up-and-down game.
Doubs was clearly a pressure point that the Packers were interested in pushing against the Bears on Saturday night, as they featured him out of the gate at a level that we hadn’t seen with consistency for over a month.
First Half Receiving Date
- Doubs: 4 catches on 5 targets for 51 yards
- All Other Packers: 5 catches on 11 targets for 42 yards
Easy come, easy go. He mishandled the onside kick that came back to cost the Packers dearly, and it is seemingly illegal for any wideout attached to this offense to sustain success.
Was Doubs impressive and scripted last week?
He was.
Am I assuming that a player who had 79 receiving yards over the four games prior is now flexible?
I am not. Give me Watson as the WR1 in this offense, and the only member that I have ranked as a top 30 option at the position.
Luke Musgrave, TE
The 26-yard grab was a nice highlight and gives Luke Musgrave a splash play (20+ yards) in three of his past four, but given that he’s earned five targets in a game just once this season, it’s clear that the Tucker Kraft role was more Tucker Kraft and less role.
With a 77.4% catch rate this season and some downfield ability, there is something there in this profile, but probably not on this roster when it’s at full strength.
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The efficiency gives him a chance to slide into the top 12 conversation this week, if for no other reason than if he can get to that five-target threshold, that a four-catch day gives you a chance to matter at the position. That and the fact that Green Bay is playing meaningful football are essential.
That said, you’re still taking on significant risk, and I’m not sure the reward is worth it. Musgrave is not in my top 12 this week and thus is not a priority play by any means.
