The 12-3 Denver Broncos play the 6-9 Kansas City Chiefs on a Christmas edition of “Thursday Night Football” in Week 17. While the latter is eliminated from playoff contention, the former is atop the AFC Conference as the No. 1 seed with two games to go. After losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars 34-20 in Week 16, let’s see how the Broncos and Chiefs match up. Let’s go.
The Broncos Win if Bo Nix Throws for Multiple Touchdowns
Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has recorded 300-plus scrimmage yards in four of his past five games. But he has just seven touchdowns in that span — four coming in one game (Week 15). To be considered a franchise QB, Nix must consistently put up multiple touchdowns a game. For reference, he is No. 8 among QBs in total touchdowns (28).
But he has just six games with two-plus touchdowns. That means Nix has nine games with a touchdown or fewer. The yardage between the 20s is elite, but Nix must complete drives with touchdowns. The Chiefs’ defense allows the 12th-fewest passing yards per game, but in a passing league, pick offense over defense. The Chiefs’ offense, starting a third-string quarterback, will also help the Broncos’ offense improve their field position.
The Broncos Lose if the Defense Plays With Its Food
The Broncos’ defense faces off against a third-string QB. Sometimes, football is simple: A third-string QB won’t be able to read an elite defense fast enough. Applying tacit knowledge gives the edge to the Broncos’ defense vs. the Chiefs in Week 17. Against a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs offense, meanwhile, the Broncos’ defense totaled three sacks, four tackles for loss, and an interception. Denver’s defense held the Chiefs’ offense to 19 points as well.
Prediction: Broncos 27–9
So, the Broncos’ defense should keep the Chiefs’ offense out of the end zone this week. Heading into Week 17, the Broncos’ odds to win the No. 1 seed in the AFC Conference dropped to 53.3% after losing to the Jaguars. The former should be able to keep pace with the New England Patriots and aforementioned Jaguars for the No. 1 seed heading into Week 18 after a Week 17 win over the Chiefs. This is a get-right game for the Broncos.
