The fantasy football landscape shifts dramatically after Week 17, as unexpected performances and emerging storylines reshape our expectations for the season ahead. Some players exceed all projections, while others leave managers scratching their heads, wondering if early concerns were justified or simply growing pains.
Christmas Day’s Detroit Lions-Minnesota Vikings matchup could provide crucial clarity on several key start/sit situations for both NFC powerhouses. Get ready to dive deep into the developments that could make or break your fantasy team’s Week 17 performance.
J.J. McCarthy, QB
A hand injury prevented J.J. McCarthy from taking the field in the second half against the Giants last week. He wasn’t great before getting lit up at the end of the second quarter (nine-of-14 for 108 yards and an interception that Jalen Nailor played into a pick; it wasn’t his fault), but he did connect on four passes to Justin Jefferson, showing a level of comfort with his WR1 that has been lacking.
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He did add a 12-yard touchdown scramble that you could argue was a bit reckless, but there is undoubtedly some Baker Mayfield in this profile. With this season lost and no need to push him, there’s no need to look in this direction even if he is ruled active for this weekend …
… but I wouldn’t sleep on him for 2026.
Aaron Jones Sr., RB
Aaron Jones hasn’t exactly set the bar high this season, and while his picking up 93 yards on 23 touches was a satisfactory performance against the Giants, what is the realistic upside in this matchup?
- Weeks 1-12: 93.4% gain rate, 11.5% of rushes have gained 10+ yards
- Weeks 13-16: 79.2% gain rate, 7.5% of rushes have gained 10+ yards
Jordan Mason and Jones both suffered ankle injuries in the win, but Mason didn’t return, leaving the veteran to do the heavy lifting. If he finds himself in the unquestioned lead role again, Jones would be a flexible asset. There isn’t much of a ceiling, but we just saw Detroit struggle to get off the field last week due to struggles defending the run, and we know Minnesota has no interest in a shootout.
If Mason is set to play, Jones is still the better play, but his appeal lessens because sheer volume is the primary driver of our interest in him.
Jordan Mason, RB
Both Jones and Mason got work on the first drive, but Mason suffered an ankle injury that would end his day before it really had a chance to get started.
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The idea of drafting Mason this summer was sound, given his efficiency and the age curve for Jones, but it has yet to pay dividends (under 12 carries in eight straight). I maintain my thought that the 26-year-old can hold a stable fantasy asset in this league if the opportunity presents itself, but we haven’t been there when Jones has been active. Indeed, we can’t count on this upcoming week in a low-stakes game, given the potential for this injury to linger.
Jordan Addison, WR
We saw Jordan Addison post highly efficient numbers through his first two seasons, and that impacted what we thought was likely for him this season, even with uncertainty at the quarterback position.
The former first-round pick has produced under target expectations in six of his past seven games. While some of that is on the below-average QB play, there are instances like Sunday’s dropped touchdown (a play that would have been worthy of 9.5 points if converted) where Addison isn’t holding up his end of the bargain.
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Even if we look at his career as a whole, he’s struggled in this matchup with just 11 catches on 26 targets against the Lions (162 career routes). I’m not too concerned about who is under center: We saw Jefferson get going a bit against the Giants, and this isn’t an offense that I’m comfortable with when it comes to a secondary pass catcher.
I’m not interested in any capacity this week, and regarding the overall profile, I find it unlikely that I’ll reach it by 2026.
Justin Jefferson, WR
For the first time since Week 5, Jefferson produced above expectations last week against the Giants.
It wasn’t a vintage day, but there were some vintage plays (the toe tap 16-yard gain from J.J. McCarthy standing out), and that’s a positive step given what we have seen for the majority of this season.
He had 57 of McCarthy’s 108 yards in the first half (37 receiving yards total in his previous three), and while I don’t want to overreact, it did only seem like a matter of time before he started efficiently finding his WR1.
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Jefferson has a TD catch in four of his last five games against the Lions and has earned a minimum of eight targets in six straight (and nine of 10) against the NFC North rival. We only have limited positive data points with him and McCarthy, but if we want either of those trends to sustain, we need McCarthy’s hand to heal.
If that’s the case, I’ll enter the week with him ranked as a middling WR2 (in the DeVonta Smith neighborhood). If it’s the Max Brosmer show, Jefferson slips 8-10 spots and checks in closer to Marvin Harrison and Michael Pittman.
T.J. Hockenson, TE
This has been a dreadful season for T.J. Hockenson, and one target on 24 routes last weekend was just another example. As bad as that sounds, it wasn’t even his first game this season with a sub 5% target share, and with his yards per route run down 30.3% from a season ago, it’s easy to connect the dots and say that his best days are behind him.
These difficult, one-sided positions require us to take a stand and move on when something doesn’t feel right. Hock missed seven games a season ago and failed to score on his 62 targets; our antennas probably should have picked up this level of risk, given the change taking place under center.
