The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Pittsburgh Steelers players heading into their matchup with the Detroit Lions to help you craft a winning lineup.
Aaron Rodgers, QB
I thought Aaron Rodgers was fine on Monday night against the Dolphins, and it was good to see him throw multiple TD passes for the first time since Week 8. Still, even if you think he’s capable of playing at a league-average level, this offense isn’t built for him to help your fantasy roster.
Arthur Smith has held him under 30 pass attempts in three of his past four games, and without a path to upside via rushing or deep shots, the ceiling isn’t nearly high enough to justify the risk you’re taking in a game where the Steelers could get run out of the building.
If you want to bet on garbage time, do it via one of the running backs by way of dump off passes of DK Metcalf: don’t get cute and think that Rodgers is in position to post a top 15 week.
Jaylen Warren, RB
Jaylen Warren has caught multiple passes in 12 of 13 games this season, but it’s becoming clear why this team never extended his role during the Najee Harris era.
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Over his past two games, Warren has turned 20 carries into 46 yards, and those struggles have come against the Ravens and Dolphins, not the ‘85 Bears.
We are now more than a month removed from his last rush that gained more than a dozen yards, and that makes him a near-impossible sell. He did hold a 3-1 red zone touch edge over Kenneth Gainwell on Monday night; he was RB2 in terms of snaps, routes, and touches in the win over Miami.
I’d rather not play either of the Steeler running backs this week. If forced to choose, Warren gets the nod due to the projected game script, but you’re trying to thread an awfully thin needle to talk yourself into him being a top 25 play this weekend.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB
Jaylen Warren entered Week 15 with an illness, and that likely played into the RB rotation on Monday night:
- Kenneth Gainwell: 48.4% snaps, 15 routes, 20 touches (1 red zone)
- Warren: 43.5% snaps, 13 routes, 15 touches (3 red zone)
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That said, it is clear that Aaron Rodgers trusts the former Eagle (57 catches on 65 targets this season), and that goes a long way for a team that is chasing a divisional title.
I do worry a bit about the scoring equity, but not enough to keep him out of the flex conversation. Gainwell has just one rushing TD since September, but he did get there twice through the air in a game against an opponent with offensive upside, and that is undoubtedly the matchup this week.
I don’t think either Pittsburgh back is a must-play, but in a low-octane offense like this, both should be viewed as viable options.
DK Metcalf, WR
DK Metcalf had a highlight touchdown on Monday night, his sixth score of the season (first since Week 8). This team is in the thick of the playoff race, and it’s clear that Aaron Rodgers trusts his WR1, a fact that keeps him ranked as a low-end WR2 for me in a game where I fully expect the Steelers to be playing catch-up.
The TD in primetime was lovely, but do you remember many other Metcalf targets?
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If not, it’s because there weren’t many. His three targets represented an 11.1% share, his lowest of the season, and an obviously concerning happening given that his route tree in Pittsburgh doesn’t offer nearly the upside of his Seattle days.
Half of Metcalf’s games this season have seen his score 8-14.5 PPR points and I think that’s where he lands this weekend.
