The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Kansas City Chiefs players heading into their matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Patrick Mahomes, QB
The six dropped passes last week against the Texans obviously didn’t help the cause, but this version of Patrick Mahomes isn’t the consistent threat that we’ve seen in the past.
Yes, he’s reached 30 rushing yards in three straight and eight times this season, a production path that should have him posting monster fantasy numbers on a regular basis.
But, with multiple TD passes in just one of his past five games, the ceiling instances have been largely absent during the second half of the fantasy season.
If we’ve learned anything from this dynastic era in Kansas City, it’s that Andy Reid is happy to have his fate in the hands of #15. They need to win out even to have a prayer at the playoffs, so another game with 48+ opportunities (pass + rush attempts), a total he’s hit three of his past four games, is very much in play, if not expected.
If you’ve qualified for the playoffs with Mahomes, I think you’re sticking with him, even after the primetime dud. This matchup isn’t ideal, but at least it’s a familiar opponent on a short week. I’ve got the former MVP ranked as my QB9 this week.
Brashard Smith, RB
If the Chiefs were to get mathematically eliminated from the postseason, there’s a world in which Brashard Smith is a star over the final few weeks, but that’s not the case right now. The rookie has just seven touches over the past month, and that’s obviously not enough work to be in the flex conversation.
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If you have a bye this week or have a locked-in starting lineup, I don’t mind the idea of stashing with the hopes that KC turns his way should the season be over.
Isiah Pacheco, RB
The Chiefs came out of the blocks with Isiah Pacheco as their featured back against the Texans last night, and that was good to see in his second game back from injury.
He didn’t exactly reward them, however (nine carries for 30 yards), and this feels very much like an offense that is going to go into “please save us, Mahomes” mode sooner than later.
If that’s the case, Pacheco’s hard-nosed, two-down back role could disappear in short order. He has yet to run for 60 yards or clear 20 as a receiver in a game this season, and that means you’re essentially chasing a touchdown from a struggling unit that prefers to throw the ball.
Not great.
Rashee Rice is the only KC skill player that I have ranked as a starter, with both running backs falling into the very low-end of the flex discussion in PPR formats.
Kareem Hunt, RB
Before the Pacheco injury, Kareem Hunt was trending in the wrong direction role-wise, but still maintaining value with a stranglehold on the valuable carries inside the 10.
It appears that we may be headed in that direction again.
Hunt’s first rush attempt in Sunday night’s loss was KC’s eighth of the game (five for Pacheco and two for Mahomes), so while he ended up leading the position in touches for the game, it was clear that the script was more Pacheco-based than we saw in Week 13.
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That said, this is still an offense that can move the ball, and that’s been enough to justify starting Hunt more often than not. He has 14 red zone touches over his past three games, and that’s enough to flex him, even if you view the 12 touches last week as something of a ceiling.
The Chiefs do appear to trust Hunt more in hurry-up/pass-heavy situations, which could prove handy against the third-best run defense by EPA. I don’t feel strongly about either Kansas City running back being a strong play this week: both are flexs at best, and you’re hoping for some Mahomes magic to create scoring opportunities.
Marquise Brown, WR
Marquise Brown had the early 35-yard catch on Sunday night against the Texans, but it was his only reception of the game.
This offense pretty clearly isn’t what it’s been in the past, and that is being felt around the fringes. Rice is getting fed weekly, and Travis Kelce still sees his handful of targets, but that’s about it. Xavier Worthy has struggled to earn looks, and this was the sixth time in seven games that Brown failed to reach three receptions.
I’d look elsewhere for your Week 15 breakout star: no one in this offense outside of the two featured options has a projectable path for a big stat line.
Rashee Rice, WR
It’s plenty fair to have wanted more from Rice on Sunday night against the Texans, but when looking at the role, it was everything you wanted; it was just a rare instance in which it failed.
Rice had his worst game of the season due to a 50% catch rate and a lack of dangerous targets. The low efficiency happened, but with a 2.7-aDOT in a Mahomes-led offense, it’s not exactly the type of thing that you worry about sustaining over time or even over multiple weeks.
There was the bad fourth-down drop and a few other spots where the connection just wasn’t as sharp as it had been over the past two months. Maybe part of it was due to a tough matchup getting into the head of KC’s WR1, and maybe some of it was trying to do too much.
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Whatever the case may be, I’m not sour at all and believe he should be viewed as a solid WR1 in this matchup against a Chargers team that has a short turnaround after their overtime win on Monday night.
Los Angeles has the fifth-lowest average depth of throw for their opponents, a defensive structure that should allow Rice to return to his 6-8 catch production, which we had come to expect before the dud in Week 13.
Xavier Worthy, WR
Baby steps.
Baby steps might not be enough this time of year, but at least things are moving in a reasonable direction.
On Sunday night, Worthy had a pair of 20+ yard receptions and, believe it or not, it was his first game like that since Week 4 against the Ravens.
How crazy is that?
The splash plays were good to see, but this is a broken Kansas City offense right now, lacking direction behind Rice. Their WR1 saw eight targets against the Texans and then saw six players check in with 2-5 looks in the loss.
Worthy comes preloaded with upside by nature of his skill set and quarterback, but he remains ranked outside of my top 40 at the position in this divisional matchup against the second-best defense at limiting 20+ yard completions this season.
Travis Kelce, TE
This is shaping up to be a sadly disappointing ending to a great career.
Kelce made just one catch on Sunday night (his first single catch performance of the season), and his drops have a weird way of being magnified by him essentially handing the other team the ball.
The future Hall of Famer has under 50 yards in three straight games and no more than six targets in four of his past five. The connection with Mahomes hasn’t been the same all season, and with hope for this season fading, it’s fair to ask if we have already seen our last highly productive Kelce game.
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My instinct on that front would be “no,” and he still finished Week 14 second on the Chiefs in targets: he simply did nothing with them. He scored against these Chargers in Brazil back in Week 1, and if he can do so again, he’s likely to find himself inside the top 10 for the week.
That’s a bit optimistic for me, but I do think he remains above the streaming tier: you just grin-and-bear it, hoping that he can cash in a high-value look at Kansas City trees to hang onto their playoff hopes.
