The New Orleans Saints are among the few teams in 2025 that have met preseason expectations, but not in a positive way. Once Derek Carr announced his retirement during the offseason, it became clear that New Orleans was headed for a transitional year with limited upside.
Forced to adjust on the fly, the Saints committed to Spencer Rattler as their starting quarterback and added Tyler Shough in the second round of the draft. Neither option has provided stability under center, and New Orleans has since fallen out of postseason contention.
As a result, attention is now shifting toward the team’s 2026 NFL Draft outlook and whether the Saints could position themselves for the No. 1 overall pick.
What Are The Saints’ Chances Of Landing The No. 1 Overall Pick?
Shough has shown some flashes of potential in back-to-back wins over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Carolina Panthers in Weeks 14 and 15, respectively. Those are two massive wins over the teams at the top of the NFC South, but Shough’s overall performance has been disappointing. Entering this week, he ranked 33rd in PFSN’s QB Impact metric, throwing as many touchdowns as interceptions across five starts.
Rattler was equally inconsistent when he was on the field, recording eight touchdowns and five interceptions in eight starts, ranking 35th in the same metric.
The Saints are now 4-10 heading into Week 16, and the jury is still out on whether or not the front office should be looking to find a difference-maker under center in the 2026 NFL Draft.
According to PFSN’s Playoff Predictor, New Orleans was slated for the fifth overall pick entering Week 15, with a 6.4% chance of landing the top pick. With the victory over Carolina, those odds have plummeted to 0.9%. For comparison, a loss would’ve boosted the odds 10.7%.
MORE:Â 2026 3-Round NFL Mock Draft: Jets, Raiders Trade Up for Quarterbacks in Round 1
Before their win over the Buccaneers, the Saints were slated for the No. 2 pick and had strong chances of landing the top overall selection if they continued to lose. However, it’s clear that first-year head coach Kellen Moore and company have no interest in throwing in the towel.
Currently, the Las Vegas Raiders hold the highest probability of securing the first overall pick at 39.8%, followed by the Giants at 38.0% and the Titans at 23.3%. The Saints will face the Titans in Week 17. They had a chance to finish in the top 3, but their winning ways have likely put an end to that.
Ultimately, the Saints’ draft position will hinge on a combination of their own performance and how the rest of the league finishes, making the final weeks of the season critical for shaping their 2026 offseason plans.
Here’s how the Saints’ remaining schedule looks:
Week 16: Saints vs. New York Jets
Week 17: Saints at Tennessee Titans
Week 18: Saints at Atlanta Falcons
