The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key New York Giants players heading into their matchup with the Washington Commanders to help you craft a winning lineup.
Jaxson Dart, QB
Jaxson Dart returned from the concussion in Week 13, and while he showed no signs of fear, the 13.6-point performance was his worst as a starter (139 passing yards with a touchdown, 20 rushing yards).
That matchup (in New England) was a tough spot, and it was always going to be. Balance was going to be a problem, and with their ears pinned back, this was target practice more than anything. In his first start back, just 14.7% of his fantasy points came with his legs, a dramatic fall from the 43.5% rate he posted in his seven starts prior.
Are those limitations here to stay after he got lit up on the sideline for one of his four rush attempts? Even if you don’t believe that the Giants are going to curtail his game long-term, the 2-11 version of this team isn’t motivated to put their franchise signal caller in harm’s way.
The Commanders’ defense does not scare me in the least, and that opens up a nice upside projection for Dart. Still, if we are talking about what is most likely to happen, I think it’s that he falls outside of the top 10 at the position in a week where everyone is in action, most of them with more to gain.
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Devin Singletary, RB
It’s been forgotten by many because it was two weeks ago and came in an 18-point loss, but Devin Singletary ran hard in Week 13 against the Patriots.
Against arguably the best run defense in the league, he ran for 68 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries (102 total yards). His excellence was even more impactful in our world, as Tyrone Tracy struggled with 10 carries for 36 yards, with no attempt to gain more than nine yards.
Singletary earning three targets to Tracy’s one is even more noteworthy, as that was the spot in this offense where the expectation was for the second-year back to dominate.
The Commanders have a below-average run defense in terms of both yards per carry before and after contact to running backs this season. Singletary earned our confidence before the bye, and we knew he had access to valuable carries even before that. I’m not thrilled about counting on the Giants, but Singletary offers a reasonable floor in a plus-matchup: he’s an RB2 for me this week.
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Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB
The expectation is for Tyrone Tracy to be fine after suffering a hip contusion in Week 13 before this team went on bye, but it really shouldn’t matter if you have a competitive fantasy team.
Over his past two games, his 30 carries have gained just 98 yards, and Devin Singletary outplayed him against the Patriots in a major way. More concerning than the limited efficiency on the ground was the fact that his 13 routes yielded just one target, a catch for a loss of three yards.
His being a receiver in a former life was interesting following the Cam Skattebo injury, and we saw him catch seven of eight targets for 119 yards in the two weeks before this dud, making the airball that much more harmful.
I still think he’s the most likely Giant RB to earn a target. Still, if that’s not a forgone conclusion and he’s going to give up the valuable work on the ground to Singletary, there’s no clear path for him to return to top 30 production, even in a plus-matchup.
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Darius Slayton, WR
Darius Slayton found paydirt against the Patriots on Monday night before the Giants went on bye, his first score of the season, but not something that I’m buying into at any level.
His 14.6-yard aDOT comes preloaded with a wide range of weekly outcomes, but we really haven’t been paid off with the big day to pay off for the down ones (yet to reach 15 PPR points in a game and held under five points four times).
New York’s big-play threat has been held under eight expected PPR points in eight of 10 games and doesn’t have a touch in the red zone since Week 3: I have nothing against taking a shot on a one-trick pony, but I have a problem with doing it irresponsibly, and right now, that’s what Slayton is.
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR
The Giants are struggling, but that can often result in an elevated floor for their pass catchers, and Wan’Dale Robinson is a great example of such.
With Jaxson Dart back under center in Week 13, Robinson’s slot usage ticked back up (61.5% of his routes, under 43% in each of the three games prior) and he earned 8+ targets for a fifth consecutive game.
The efficiency spikes and the aDOT dropped, the perfect combination of events for fantasy managers. The limitations of this offense factor into the overall picture (just two end zone targets since September), but there is value in knowing that you can pencil in double-digit PPR points, and that’s what we have here.
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Theo Johnson, TE
Theo Johnson matched a season high with eight targets in Week 13 against the Patriots, and while he only recorded 5.9 of the 12.9 expected PPR points, there was an end zone target in his hands that could have (should have, if you ask him) made his stat line much better.
If he comes down with that catch, it would have been his fourth time in five games clearing 10 fantasy points, and he’d be a popular streaming name. Due to the drop and the Week 14 bye, some of the momentum in his favor has slowed, but if you’re streaming the position, you could do worse than an athletic marvel in an offense that lacks a true target hierarchy.
Four tight ends have reached 18 PPR points in this matchup this season, and while that outcome would surprise me, 11-14 points wouldn’t, and that’s useful at the TE position in a major way.
