The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key New England Patriots players heading into their matchup with the Buffalo Bills to help you craft a winning lineup.
Drake Maye, QB
That’s now 10 straight games in which Drake Maye has averaged over eight yards per pass, allowing him to overcome some underwhelming recent rushing numbers (zero rushing scores since September and 13.8 rushing yards per game over his past five).
In those five games, his weekly finish ceiling has been QB9, but he’s been worse than QB13 just once since the opener, and that’s been what has made him valuable in our game. In theory, if you’re going to get a ceiling effort from the second-year QB, this would be it.
He played one full game against Buffalo last season: multiple passing scores and 42 opportunities (pass-plus-rush attempts). Something like that could well be in the cards this week, and that has me ranking him as a very solid Tier 2 QB: you should trust him with your fantasy fate on the line.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
We saw Rhamondre Stevenson take on more work in Week 13 than in Week 12 as he showed health, but he stayed on brand and underwhelmed.
There was an outlier 36-yard reception. It counted, but that’s not what you’re counting on from Stevenson and his other 14 touches, which gained 44 yards against a bad Giants defense. Blame the blocking or a lack of conviction, it doesn’t matter to me: 112.6% of his rushing yards over his past three games have come after contact.
He does have 3+ red zone touches in four consecutive games, and that has the potential to bail you out if you’re really backed into a corner, given the matchup, but I wouldn’t be looking to play him if I can avoid it.
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TreVeyon Henderson, RB
TreVeyon Henderson has given us over 13 expected PPR points in five straight and seems to finally be locked into a 15-18 touch role.
You love to see it.
This Bills run defense is a bottom-5 unit in every category that you’d look at, and we’ve seen it by way of some slate-breaking performances (Bijan Robinson, Sean Tucker, and De’Von Achane all easily cleared 30 points in this matchup over the past two months).
This is the moment you drafted Henderson for. He’s rested off the bye, running hard (4.7 yards per carry after contact against the Giants in Week 13), and being used in a fantasy-friendly way with over 15 routes run in five straight contests.
Henderson is a script-proof back that should have no problem giving you top 15 production in this spot, no matter how you think the game plays out. Rhamondre Stevenson hasn’t had a 20-yard rush since September, and while he had the 36-yard catch in Week 13, that’s going to be Henderson more often than not, given his versatility.
Wheels up. You suffered through a lot of early-season shenanigans for the opportunity to unleash this rookie in the first round of your playoffs with confidence.
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DeMario Douglas, WR
It’s been more than a month since a target to DeMario Douglas last hit the ground, and that’s usually a great sign, but when efficiency at that level isn’t met with a role extension, it tells you all you need to know.
Only three times has Douglas reached a 14% target share in a game this season, and that’s not a role that is even close to interesting. Drake Maye is playing great, and the Patriots are winning at a high level: do we really think that they use the bye week to scheme up more work for a slot option in Douglas that offers little upside?
Doubt it.
Stefon Diggs is the WR1 in this offense, Hunter Henry is a consistent asset, and the other secondary pass catchers offer significantly more upside. I think Douglas outscores Kyle Williams more weeks than not moving forward, but if you are looking for a spike play or two, the rookie is the flier to take simply based on how he is used (one catch from him could be worth what four of Douglas are).
Kayshon Boutte, WR
Kayshon Boutee has defied logic by scoring on six of his 29 catches and 38 targets, taking full advantage of what it is that Drake Maye brings to the table.
If you view “defying logic” as a way to run your fantasy team, there’s little I can say that is going to change your mind.
Patriot Scoring Rates
- Boutee: 20.7% of receptions and 15.8% of his targets
- All Others: 6.9% of receptions and 5.1% of receptions
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His role comes with a level of variance, and we really haven’t seen the dark side of that variance just yet: when he’s been targeted, you’ve been rewarded. That’s a dangerous skill set to bank on in a perfect matchup, never mind in a potential weather spot against a Bills team that ranks top 10 in both deep ball passer rating and touchdown rate.
I can live with getting knocked out of the fantasy playoffs, I can’t live with it coming as a result of me being left high-and-dry when banking on a WR whose profile is this reliant on singular plays.
Stefon Diggs, WR
If it feels like the Stefon Diggs season has been a rollercoaster, that’s because it has been.
And that’s going to continue to be the case.
He’s hit a 61% snap share just once since September, and I don’t care how good you think Drake Maye is; limited playing time makes consistent production an uphill battle.
For the season, Diggs has four games of under six PPR points, including each of his past two, but he also has four with over 15. This is a strong offense, and that’ll result in some peaks, but part of the beauty of this unit is that it doesn’t have a single point of failure.
I do have him ranked as the pretty clear WR1 in New England, and with this game having shootout potential, that’s enough to land him in the low-end starter conversation for me, though you need to be aware of the downside.
If I’m a top seed that is loaded with depth, I’d rather plug in a consistent 6–7 target player over one in Diggs who saw 19 looks in Weeks 10-11, but just seven in Weeks 12-13.
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Hunter Henry, TE
Hunter Henry has parlayed consecutive games with multiple red zone touches (one such game through the first 11 weeks this season) with 35.8 PPR points over his past two games and seems to be carving out a niche in this offense that MVP favorite Drake Maye heads.
The ceiling isn’t elite, but with a target share north of 18% in three straight, this role is trending in the right direction at the right time. The floor is worth your time with Henry averaging his most yards per route since 2017, and given the shootout potential of this game, your scoring equity is a touch higher than usual.
I suspect this will be the highest I have Henry ranked for the remainder of the season (at Ravens and at Jets over the next two weeks), so make sure to get him back into your lineup after the annoying late bye.
