The Green Bay Packers picked up their biggest win of the season in Week 14 against the Chicago Bears to set themselves up in a favorable position for the playoffs.
However, now the Packers will face their toughest competition of the year in Week 15 with the Denver Broncos. The Broncos’ game isn’t a must-win because of the spot the Packers have put themselves in, but a win would make it very difficult to miss the playoffs.
What Does the Packers’ Playoff Picture Look Like?
The Packers currently hold the No. 2 seed in the NFC for the 2025 NFL playoffs. However, with four games to go, the Packers have a pretty difficult schedule.
Green Bay will face the AFC’s No. 1 seed this week before traveling to Chicago for Week 16. Then the Packers will face the Baltimore Ravens, who may be eliminated at that point or could be playing for their playoff lives, before finishing the season against the Minnesota Vikings.
The Packers currently have a 93.1% chance to make the playoffs, according to PFSN’s NFL Football Playoff Meter, and that grows to 97.80% with a win against the Broncos.
However, a loss to the Broncos only drops it to 87%. Green Bay’s big game will be the following week against the Bears, once again.
The Packers currently have the best chance to win the division at 63.4% because of their win this past week. The Bears are second in the division with a 28.1% chance to win it.
However, if the Bears win next week’s matchup, it changes everything. The Packers are just a half game ahead of the Bears, and if both teams match each other’s outcomes the rest of the season, Week 16’s matchup will determine the division.
The Bears’ schedule, however, is pretty difficult as well. Chicago has the Cleveland Browns this week before the Packers in Week 16. Then, the Bears will travel to San Francisco before ending the year against the Detroit Lions.
The Packers’ highest projected playoff seed right now is the No. 3 seed at 38.7%, according to PFSN’s NFL Football Playoff Meter. That would mean winning the division, but likely remaining behind the NFC West winner and the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Packers are currently a game and a half ahead of the Eagles in the No. 2 seed, but Philadelphia has the tie-breaker over Green Bay due to their head-to-head matchup.
If the Packers finish the year as expected and make the playoffs, they have better than a 50% chance to at least make it to the divisional round.
Green Bay has better than a 26% chance to make it to the Conference Championship Round and almost a 15% chance to make it to the Super Bowl. The Packers have a 7.6% chance to win the Super Bowl.
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The Packers’ chances to make it past the Divisional Round, all the way to Super Bowl champions, are the sixth-best chances in the NFL.
Green Bay’s matchup with Denver this weekend is an important measuring stick for where both teams are and will have a big say in playoff seeding.
However, in terms of the Packers’ division chances, the next week in Chicago carries all the weight.
The PFSN model has the Packers projected for 11.3 wins, which would be about two wins in their final four games. If the Packers can manage more than that, all those percentages increase.
