One of the most statistically dominant teams in college football this season has been the James Madison Dukes, who went 12-1 in winning the Sun Belt Conference Championship. However, James Madison lost their only game this season against a Power 4 school, with a 28-14 loss against Louisville. They will be hoping to change that in the College Football Playoff.
Using the PFSN College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine James Madison’s playoff scenarios and how they can walk away with a CFB National Championship on January 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
James Madison’s Playoff Chances and Path to the College Football National Championship
- Chance to make CFP Semifinal: 0.9%
- Chance to make the National Championship: 0.1%
- Chance to win the National Championship: <0.1%
James Madison crept into the College Football Playoff as the 12th seed and the fifth-best-ranked conference champion. They have Duke to thank for their inclusion, after the Blue Devils beat Virginia to win the ACC and ensure the ACC winner would not be ranked above the Dukes.
Aside from their loss to the Louisville Cardinals, the Dukes have beaten everyone in front of them in fairly comprehensive style. Just three of their victories have been by 10 points or fewer, and they won the Sun Belt with a 31-14 victory over Troy.
MORE: Oregon Playoff Scenarios: How the Ducks Make the College Football National Championship Game
After being placed No. 12 in the final rankings, James Madison will go on the road to play the Oregon Ducks in the first round of the College Football Playoff. The Ducks went 11-1 and will be a stiff test for the Dukes. PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter (FPM) has Oregon as overwhelming favorites, giving them a 90.2% chance of winning and advancing to the quarterfinal.
If James Madison manages to win, they will progress to play Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl on December 31, 2025. The College Football Playoff does not reseed after each round, meaning that every team has a defined path to the national championship game in Miami.
In a matchup between James Madison and Texas Tech, the FPM has the Dukes winning that game in just 9.2% of simulations, giving them a 0.9% chance of advancing to the semifinal stage.
If James Madison were to stun Oregon and Texas Tech, it would take on the winner of the quarterfinal game involving the No. 1-seeded Indiana. In their quarterfinal, Indiana will face the winner of No. 8-seeded Oklahoma Sooners and No. 9-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide.
Among those three teams, as things stand, James Madison would not be given much chance. However, that narrative would look very different if they had beaten Oregon and Texas Tech. Currently, the Dukes are predicted to beat Indiana 7.8% of the time, Oklahoma 11.4% of the time, and Alabama 10.8% of the time.
Overall, the FPM gives the Dukes a 0.1% chance of reaching the National Championship Game in Miami and a <0.1% chance of winning the CFB National Championship.
In the National Championship Game, Indiana could face any team from the other side of the bracket: Georgia (2), Ohio State (3), Ole Miss (6), Texas A&M (7), Miami (10), or Tulane (11). Of those opponents, the FPM does not have James Madison as a favorite against any of those teams. The only team they are currently given a shot against is Tulane, who they would be predicted to defeat 46.4% of the time.
