The Oregon Ducks had a strong season in 2025, losing just once to the eventual Big Ten Champions and No. 1 seeds in the College Football Playoff. The Ducks went 11-1, only missing out on the Big Ten Championship Game because Indiana and Ohio State went unbeaten, but did enough to secure themselves an “at-large” selection.
Using the PFSN College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Oregon’s playoff scenarios and how they can walk away with a CFB National Championship on January 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
Oregon’s Playoff Chances and Path to the College Football National Championship
- Chance to make CFP Semifinal: 48.2%
- Chance to make the National Championship: 22.5%
- Chance to win the National Championship: 10.9%
Oregon did not commit many mistakes in the 2025 college football season. Their only loss on the season was a 30-20 defeat by the Indiana Hoosiers, who went on to win the Big Ten Championship Game. Therefore, it is no massive surprise that Oregon is the highest-ranked “at-large” team being seeded fifth in the College Football Playoff bracket.
MORE:Â Ole Miss Playoff Scenarios: How the Rebels Make the College Football National Championship Game
After being placed No. 5 in the final rankings, Oregon beat the James Madison Dukes comfortably to book a spot in the Orange Bowl against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The College Football Playoff does not reseed after each round, meaning that every team has a defined path to the national championship game in Miami.
In a matchup between Oregon and Texas Tech, the FPM has the Ducks winning that game in 48.2% of simulations, giving them a 43.5% chance of advancing to the semifinal stage.
The College Football Playoff Bracket pic.twitter.com/h8AgyBNCZg
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 7, 2025
If Oregon prevails in the quarterfinal, it will take on the winner of the quarterfinal game involving the No. 1-seeded Indiana. In their quarterfinal, Indiana will face the No. 9-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide.
Among those three teams, Oregon’s preference would have been the Sooners, whom the FPM gives the Ducks a 54% chance of beating. The FPM also has Oregon as the slight favorites against Alabama, winning in 52.7% of simulations. However, they would be underdogs against Indiana in a rematch, winning in 43.8% of simulations.
Overall, the FPM gives the Ducks a 22.5% chance of reaching the National Championship Game in Miami and a 10.9% chance of winning the CFB National Championship.
In the National Championship Game, Indiana could face any team from the other side of the bracket: Georgia (2), Ohio State (3), Ole Miss (6), or Miami (10). Of those opponents, the FPM has Oregon favored against every team other than Ohio State.
