The Texas Tech put a bow on a successful regular season with their Big 12 Championship Game victory over the BYU Cougars, but the story does not end there. The Red Raiders now head into the College Football Playoff, where they will aim to translate their Big 12 success into success on a national stage.
Using the PFSN College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Texas Tech’s playoff scenarios and how they can walk away with a CFB National Championship on January 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
Texas Tech’s Playoff Chances and Path to the College Football National Championship
- Chance to make CFP Semifinal: 55.6%
- Chance to make the National Championship: 27.5%
- Chance to win the National Championship: 13.8%
Texas Tech clinched a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff with its victory over BYU in Arlington. A loss would likely still have seen them make the College Football Playoff, but potentially traveling to an SEC team in the first round. Instead, Texas Tech heads back to Arlington to play in the Cotton Bowl on December 31, 2025.
In theory, having a bye should be an advantage over the team that advances from the first round into the quarterfinals. However, in the inaugural 12-team playoff, all four top seeds lost in the quarterfinals.
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While we do not know precisely who Texas Tech will play, we do know it will either be the No. 5-seeded Oregon Ducks or the No. 12-seeded James Madison Dukes. The College Football Playoff does not reseed after each round, meaning that every team has a defined path to the national championship game in Miami.
The PFSN College Football Playoff Meter gives Texas Tech a 55.6% chance of making it to the semifinal stage. In a matchup with Oregon, the FPM predicts Texas Tech to win in 51.8% of simulations, while against James Madison, the Red Raiders prevail in 90.8% of simulations.
The College Football Playoff Bracket pic.twitter.com/h8AgyBNCZg
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 7, 2025
If Texas Tech prevails in the quarterfinal, it will take on the winner of the quarterfinal game involving the No. 1-seeded Indiana Hoosiers. In their quarterfinal, Indiana will face the winner of No. 8-seeded Oklahoma Sooners and No. 9-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide.
Among those three teams, Texas Tech’s preference would be the Sooners, whom the FPM gives the Red Raiders a 55.8% chance of beating. Texas Tech would also be favored against Alabama, with the FPM predicting a 54.5% win probability for the Red Raiders against the Crimson Tide. However, they would be underdogs against Indiana, with the FPM having Texas Tech prevailing 45.5% of the time.
Overall, the FPM gives Texas Tech a 27.5% chance of reaching the National Championship Game in Miami and a 13.8% chance of winning the CFB National Championship.
In the National Championship Game, Indiana could face any team from the other side of the bracket: Georgia (2), Ohio State (3), Ole Miss (6), Texas A&M (7), Miami (10), or Tulane (11). Of those opponents, the FPM has Texas Tech favored against every opponent except Georgia and Ohio State.
