The Ohio State Buckeyes came up short against the Indiana Hoosiers in the Big Ten Championship, but last season, Ohio State missed out on the conference title and still went on to run the College Football Playoff and win the National Championship. Can they do it again?
Using the PFSN College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Ohio State’s playoff scenarios and how they can walk away with a CFB National Championship on January 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
Ohio State’s Playoff Chances and Path to the College Football National Championship
- Chance to make CFP Semifinal: 66.7%
- Chance to make the National Championship: 41.6%
- Chance to win the National Championship: 23.7%
Despite losing the Big Ten Championship Game to the Indiana Hoosiers, Ohio State wasn’t penalized significantly by the College Football Playoff Selection Committee. They entered the postseason tournament as the second-ranked team in the country, meaning that they secured passage through to the quarterfinal stage without having to suit up in Round 1.
MORE: Indiana Playoff Scenarios: How the Hoosiers Make the College Football National Championship Game
In the inaugural 12-team playoff, all four top seeds lost in the quarterfinals — but the Buckeyes are a seasoned Playoff team under Ryan Day, with their only loss over the course of the entire season coming in the Big Ten title game. The Buckeyes should be able to avoid that fate and at least compete to be one of the last four teams remaining.
Ohio State will take on the Miami Hurricanes in the Cotton Bowl after the ACC team took care of business on the road against the Texas A&M Aggies on Dec. 20. The College Football Playoff does not reseed after each round, meaning that every team has a defined path to the national championship game in Miami.
The PFSN College Football Playoff Meter gives Ohio State a 67.% chance of beating Miami and making it to the semifinal stage.
If Ohio State prevails in the quarterfinal, it will take on the winner of the quarterfinal game involving the No. 3-seeded Georgia Bulldogs. In their quarterfinal, Georgia will face the winner of No. 6-seeded Ole Miss Rebels and No. 11-seeded Tulane Green Wave.
Among those three teams, Ohio State’s preference would be Tulane, whom the FPM gives Ohio State a 92% chance of beating. However, the more realistic outcome is that it will be the winner of a Georgia vs. Ole Miss matchup. The FPM has Georgia and Ole Miss in a close 50% split for the winner of that game.
Overall, the FPM gives the Buckeyes a 41.6% chance of reaching the National Championship Game in Miami and a 23.7% chance of winning the CFB National Championship. Despite being the No. 2-ranked team in the country, Ohio State has the best chance to win a second successive national title.
In the National Championship Game, Ohio State could face any team from the other side of the bracket: Indiana (1), Texas Tech (4), Oregon (5), Oklahoma (8), Alabama (9), or James Madison (12). Of those opponents, the FPM has Ohio State favored against every team.
