The Texas Tech Red Raiders’ domination of the BYU Cougars in the Big 12 Conference Championship kept the Miami Hurricanes’ College Football Playoff window open. But how open is it?
What Are the Chances of Miami Making the College Football Playoff?
Entering Conference Championship Week, the PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter (FPM) gave Miami a 12.8% chance of making the CFP. The last Committee ranking reveal saw the Canes listed at No. 12, owning a 10-2 overall record and 6-2 conference record.
With those losses coming against the Louisville Cardinals and SMU Mustangs, Miami fell out of the ACC title match due to conference tiebreakers, leaving one of the seven At-Large spots as their only shot at competing in the last dance.
Mario Cristobal and Co.’s No. 1 threat is the No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, whom they defeated 27-24 earlier in the season. According to Hall of Fame head coach Nick Saban, that win alone should see Miami earn a CFP spot over Marcus Freeman’s squad.
The 🐐 has weighed in. END of conversation. pic.twitter.com/QmjXUmmlfd
— Miami Hurricanes (@MiamiHurricanes) December 6, 2025
However, Saban’s decision isn’t the one that matters; the Committee’s does. And since they have the Fighting Irish two places above the Canes, Miami has an uphill battle toward an At-Large bid.
BYU’s loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship opened up one spot, and an Alabama loss vs. Georgia in the SEC Championship could open up another. Of course, that scenario would put pressure on the Committee to deem a three-loss Alabama as weaker than a 10-2 Miami.
Ultimately, the decision is out of their hands and in the CFB Playoff Committee’s. Per PFSN’s FPM, following Texas Tech’s win, 10 teams have a 100% chance of making the CFP: Indiana, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Oregon, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Tulane, and Georgia.
KEEP READING: Current College Football Playoff Bracket Entering Week 15
Meanwhile, Virginia (64%), Alabama (55.8%), and Miami (44.2%) are in competition for the final two seeds. The 10-2 Cavaliers will host the 7-5 Duke Blue Devils in the ACC Championship. If Virginia wins, they are in. If they lose … well, chaos ensues.
There was talk of Vanderbilt and Miami possibly scheduling an NCAA-permissible 13th regular-season game in Hawaii to help boost the winner’s CFP odds, but nothing has come to fruition. All Miami can do now is hope for a Virginia or Alabama loss. If not, they’ll be watching the CFP from their couches once again.
