Following Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are projected to be on the fringe of the CFB Playoff field. Where do they stand in the 12-team bracket, and can they compete for a National Championship?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Notre Dame’s chances of playing in the CFB Playoff.
What are Notre Dame’s CFB Playoff Chances?
The PFSN College FPM gives Notre Dame a 100% chance of making the College Football Playoff. Notre Dame is currently ranked 10th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings, sitting at 10-2 overall, with their only losses coming against 7th-ranked Texas A&M and 12th-ranked Miami.
As an Independent team with no conference affiliation, Notre Dame doesn’t have a conference championship on deck. This both helps and hurts them.
Notre Dame’s only ranked wins in 2025 were against USC and Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, their loss against Miami could come back to bite them it the CFB Playoff committee re-evaluates and decides Notre Dame is on shakier ground. Notre Dame doesn’t have a conference title game to serve as another statement win against a quality opponent.
On the flip side, the Fighting Irish can also be content in knowing that they won’t incur another loss. Set at 10-2, Marcus Freeman’s squad has a reasonably strong track record — but they’ll need to cross their fingers that the ultimate chaos outcome doesn’t ensue.
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For Notre Dame, the Big 12 Championship was the game to watch. If BYU had defeated Texas Tech in Arlington, it would have been a death knell for the Fighting Irish. However, the Red Raiders did Marcus Freeman’s team a solid on Saturday afternoon, with a victory that not only consigned the Cougars to a loss, but also provided a substantial humbling.
Rather than overtake Notre Dame, BYU will now fall out of contention altogether. The Irish can get an additional boost in the mid-afternoon slate, with the SEC Championship Game featuring an Alabama Crimson Tide team ranked just above them. A loss for Kalen DeBoer’s team would add further security for Notre Dame.
This is all assuming, of course, that the CFB Playoff committee doesn’t have a change of heart and flips Miami and Notre Dame. Notre Dame’s current ranking over Miami is notable, but nothing is finalized until Sunday.
Our simulations give Notre Dame a 23.5% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 12.3% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 6.3% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
