The Denver Broncos escaped with a narrow win against the Washington Commanders on Sunday Night Football and have moved back into first place in the AFC. Denver sits at 10-2 and currently owns the top seed.
However, the New England Patriots have not yet played in Week 13. They face the New York Giants on Monday Night Football and can jump back into the first seed with a win. If both teams finish the season tied, the tiebreakers become extremely important.
What Do PFSN Metrics Show About New England’s Odds?
According to PFSN playoff metrics, the Patriots have a 99.5% chance to clinch a playoff spot. PFSN projects them to finish with an average of 12.9 wins. Only the Denver Broncos are in the way of the Patriots earning a playoff bye for the first time since 2018. PFSN Metrics state that the Patriots have a 49.3% chance of earning the No. 1 seed.
Current Tiebreaker Landscape
If New England and Denver finish with the same record, the first tiebreaker is the head-to-head record. Since neither team plays the other, the next tiebreaker is wins in conference. Both teams are currently 6-2 against the AFC, so the tiebreaker is based on their records against common opponents. Denver holds that edge right now because it beat the Raiders, while the Patriots lost to Las Vegas in Week 1. That gives the Broncos the first seed as of now.
Looking ahead, Denver has difficult matchups with the Chargers, Chiefs, and Packers remaining. New England has a Week 14 bye and then plays the Bills, Ravens, Jets, and Dolphins. Both of these teams have important contests down the stretch, and the No. 1 seed might not be decided until Week 18.
Beyond the battle for the top seed, the rest of the AFC saw significant movement. The Colts dropped their second straight game and fell to the sixth seed. The Texans have surged into contention. The Ravens, Chargers, and Colts sit in the eight-win cluster that will likely determine the Wild Card order in late December.
Here is the current AFC standings snapshot.
Current AFC Standings
- Denver Broncos (10-2) AFC West 1st seed
- New England Patriots (10-2) AFC East 1st seed
- Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) AFC South 1st seed
- Baltimore Ravens (6-6) AFC 1st seed
- Los Angeles Chargers (8 and 4) Wildcard
- Indianapolis Colts (8 and 4) Wildcard
- Buffalo Bills (8 and 4) Wildcard
- Houston Texans (7 and 5) on the fringe
- Pittsburgh Steelers (6 and 6) on the fringe
- Kansas City Chiefs (6 and 6) on the fringe
The Patriots can reclaim the first seed with a win on Monday night against the Giants.
The AFC East Race Tightens
With a win on Sunday, the Bills cut New England’s division lead to two games. A Patriots victory on Monday night would push their AFC East lead to 2.5 games. The winner of each division gets to host a playoff game, and even though the Patriots are undefeated on the road, a home playoff game is huge.
Buffalo has a difficult matchup next week against the Bengals, who are now 3-0 with Joe Burrow as their quarterback. The Bills then face the Patriots in Week 15, with New England coming off its bye. That game will be pivotal for both teams, and if the Patriots win, they could claim the division.
Remaining Schedules
Patriots: Giants, bye, Bills, Ravens, Jets, Dolphins
Bills: Bengals, Patriots, Browns, Eagles, Jets
Projected Playoff Matchups
If the season ended today, the AFC Wild Card round would look like this. Remember, the Patriots have yet to play in Week 13.
No. 1 Broncos: bye
No. 2 Patriots vs Bills
No. 3 Jaguars vs Colts
No. 4 Ravens vs Chargers
Bottom Line
The Patriots control their own destiny. If they can take care of business and continue their winning streak, they will earn a top seed in the AFC. However, they have a significant game on Monday night and then will get a much-needed bye week.
