The San Francisco 49ers’ win over the Cleveland Browns, combined with losses by the Los Angeles Rams and the Philadelphia Eagles, has made the race for the NFC’s top seed even more intriguing. A realistic path has now opened for the 49ers to secure the playoff bye. Here is how that could happen and the scenarios they would need.
49ers’ Path To First Seed
San Francisco matched its best stretch of the season with three straight wins and heads into the bye week knowing it has done everything possible, even after losing key players like Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and Mykel Williams, and still being without offensive contributors such as Brandon Aiyuk and Jacob Cowing.
At 9-4, the division is wide open again, especially after the Rams’ loss to the Carolina Panthers, which put the 49ers back within one game of their rivals and kept a clear path to the NFC’s top seed and a first-round playoff bye. For that to happen, the first requirement is for San Francisco to run the table.
If they do that, the 49ers would secure wins over the Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, and direct competitors Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks, finishing the regular season at 13-4.
This record would already place them ahead of the Seahawks and the Bears, who currently hold the NFC’s top seed at 9-3. But they would still need to jump the Rams and the Green Bay Packers, both of whom have better records than San Francisco at the moment.
To claim the number one seed, Los Angeles and Green Bay would each need to lose one game. The most realistic scenarios suggest that the Rams will fall to the Seahawks on the road in Week 16, and the Packers will lose to the Bears, also in Week 16.
These outcomes are realistic, especially given the divisional context and the strong seasons their opponents are having. This scenario would set up two decisive matchups for the 49ers in Weeks 17 and 18, with consecutive home games against the Bears and the Seahawks, both of which have significant implications for the conference lead.
According to the PFSN Football Playoff Meter, the 49ers have a 10.8% chance of securing the top seed, trailing the Seahawks, Rams, and Bears, with the Rams still leading the way at 32.5%.
