Entering Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the Miami Hurricanes’ ACC Championship hopes were hanging by a thread, but there was still a way the dice could roll to give Mario Cristobal’s squad one of the two title spots at Bank of America Stadium. Does that still exist?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Miami’s chances of making it to the ACC Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Miami’s ACC Championship Game Chances
Entering Week 14, PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gave Miami a 0.01% chance of playing in the ACC Championship game. Their only remaining conference game was against the Pittsburgh Panthers (8-3, 6-1).
Sitting at two losses, with a loss to Louisville that hurts Miami in the tiebreaker equation against SMU and Virginia, the Hurricanes were not in a desirable position for the ACC title race.
However, that got a lot more interesting early Saturday afternoon as the Hurricanes put the Panthers to the sword in dominant style. Of course, the nature of the win is irrelevant to their hopes of making the ACC Championship Game. What’s important is the win, and it boosted their chances of making it to the American Championship Game.
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Following the Hurricanes’ win over Pitt and Duke’s win over Wake Forest, Miami had a 14.5% chance of making it to the ACC Championship Game, according to the PFSN FPM. A testament to the volatility of the situation, the probabilities reached as high as 28% earlier in the day.
However, they took a swing once again late on Saturday night, as the Virginia Cavaliers booked a spot in the ACC Championship Game with an easy win over Virginia Tech. That win, combined with the other factors from the weekend, means Miami can no longer play for a conference title.
What are Miami’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team.
However, the probability of the Hurricanes reaching the College Football Playoff took a nose dive as Week 14 progressed. Miami can no longer reach the College Football Playoff as a conference champion, and they are placed in an extremely precarious position to gain an At-Large bid.
Miami is currently ranked 12th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. Ironically, they’re the highest-ranked ACC program in the CFB Playoff rankings, but they’re in a tough position of not being able to win the conference crown.
Unless the selection committee values their win over Pitt enough to move them up substantially this week, Miami is likely not going to the College Football Playoff.
Our simulations also give Miami a 0% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 0% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
