Entering Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the Alabama Crimson Tide are in position to play for an SEC Championship — but they still have one box left to check before they can book their flight to Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Alabama’s chances of making it to the SEC Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Alabama’s SEC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Alabama a 74.6% chance of playing in the SEC Championship game. Their remaining conference game is an away game against the Auburn Tigers (5-6, 1-6).
Kalen DeBoer and Ty Simpson have taken their lumps at times in the 2025 season, with the Crimson Tide’s loss to eighth-ranked Oklahoma being the most recent example. However, Alabama is still situated to potentially contend for both a conference title and CFB Playoff glory.
If Alabama wins the Iron Bowl against a vulnerable Auburn squad, they will automatically block out Ole Miss from the title game, with a superior opposing winning percentage in conference play compared to the Rebels.
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That makes it simple for the Crimson Tide: Win, and you’re in — Georgia in Atlanta in a classic SEC matchup.
There’s extra motivation for Alabama to win against Auburn — not just because it’s a rivalry, or that it assures their Championship game standing, but also because a loss potentially drops Alabama out of the CFB Playoffs.
What are Alabama’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team.
Alabama can make the CFB Playoff through both avenues. Their best chance comes from winning the SEC Championship, but they’ll still be in At-Large consideration, regardless.
The PFSN College FPM gives Alabama an 80.2% chance of making the College Football Playoff and a 42.0% chance of winning the SEC Championship. That leaves a 37.8% chance that the Crimson Tide will earn an At-Large bid.
Alabama is currently ranked 10th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. They’re on the fringe of At-Large territory, and a loss against Georgia — their only potential opponents in the title game — shouldn’t hurt them too much.
Aside from an early-season loss against Florida State, Alabama has a strong record, with a head-to-head win against a surefire CFB Playoff competitor in Georgia.
The committee has proven deferential toward SEC teams before, and that may prove to be the case again this year — but Alabama still can’t afford to lose to Auburn. Such a weak loss, for a team that already has two defeats, could prove fatal in the CFB Playoff race.
Our simulations also give Alabama a 33.6% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 16% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 7.7% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
