Entering Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the Arizona State Sun Devils are still in the running to potentially secure a spot in the Big 12 Championship game. What has to happen for Kenny Dillingham’s squad to make it to AT&T Stadium?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Arizona State’s chances of making it to the Big 12 Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Arizona State’s Big 12 Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Arizona State a 12.7% chance of playing in the Big 12 Championship game. Their remaining conference game is a home game against the Arizona Wildcats (8-3, 5-3).
First things first, Arizona State needs to win against Arizona in their final game. Notching a third loss would all but eliminate Arizona State from Big 12 title contention, and Arizona isn’t an easy out. PFSN’s CFB FPM only gives the Sun Devils a 54.6% chance of winning — close to a coin flip.
Even if Arizona State does outlast Arizona’s explosive offense and formidable secondary, they need help from Texas Tech and BYU. If both Texas Tech and BYU win their final games — both against teams with losing conference records — Arizona State will be out by default.
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However, if Texas Tech loses, Arizona State has the head-to-head win to leap past Texas Tech in a two-loss tiebreaker, as well as the common opponents edge to beat Utah in a three-way tie situation. That same common opponents edge would help Arizona State against BYU, if the Cougars lose.
The Sun Devils’ win over Texas Tech is the ace up their sleeve. Both BYU and Utah have head-to-head losses against Texas Tech, so in the right scenario, Arizona State can surge to one of the top two spots and make the Big 12 Championship. But ASU’s fate remains out of their control past their ability to win in Week 14.
What are Arizona State’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team. Arizona State can only make the CFB Playoffs by winning the Big 12 Championship.
The PFSN College FPM gives Arizona State a 4.1% chance of making the College Football Playoff, and a 4.1% chance of winning the Big 12 Championship. That confirms that if they do not win the Big 12 title, they will be eliminated from the extended postseason.
Arizona State is currently ranked 20th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. They’re well outside At-Large territory, and would surely be left outside the 12-team field without a Big 12 Championship win to lock in their standing.
Even if the Sun Devils manage to get luck on their side and get the roll they need to make the Big 12 Championship Game, leaving Arlington without the trophy would be a death knell to any hopes of being a CFB Playoff Cinderella.
Our simulations also give Arizona State a 0.4% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 0.1% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.04% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
