Entering Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the BYU Cougars were in a good position to make the Big 12 Championship Game. How did the events of two conference games on Friday night impact Kalani Sitake’s team ahead of their regular-season finale on Saturday afternoon?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine BYU’s chances of making it to the Big 12 Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
BYU’s Big 12 Championship Game Chances
After the Arizona State Sun Devils lost to the Arizona Wildcats in the Duel in the Desert, there is no scenario where BYU can’t play in the Big 12 Championship. The Sun Devils’ loss also removed any tiebreaker hopes for the Utah Utes, leaving the Cougars with safe passage to Arlington, where they will face a rematch with the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Big 12 Championship Game.
With that eventuality confirmed ahead of their Week 14 matchup, BYU can focus on taking care of its own business without worrying about events elsewhere. Their remaining conference game is a home game against the UCF Knights (5-6, 2-6).
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UCF’s only conference wins have come against West Virginia and Oklahoma State — both fellow bottom-feeders in the Big 12 conference — but UCF did play Houston close a few weeks ago.
Either way, BYU shouldn’t treat this game as a guaranteed win. The Cougars are already in the Big 12 Championship game, but they can’t afford a defeat against the Knights on their resume when the College Football Playoff conversations begin in earnest.
What are BYU’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team. BYU’s best chance of making the CFB Playoff is as an automatic bid winner.
The PFSN College FPM gives BYU a 65.4% chance of making the College Football Playoff, and a 39.7% chance of winning the Big 12 Championship. That leaves a 25.7% chance of BYU being an At-Large bid.
BYU is currently ranked 11th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. They’re on the fringe of At-Large territory and a loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game wouldn’t penalize them.
However, if the Cougars lose their Week 14 contest against UCF, it could have disastrous consequences for a desired CFB Playoff ascent. In a muddy At-Large field, BYU can’t afford to take their foot off the gas today.
Our simulations also give BYU a 21.0% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 7.4% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 2.8% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
