Entering Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, South Florida remains just about in the mix when it comes to the American Conference Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. With five teams still alive in The American, South Florida’s playoff chances hinge on them making and winning the conference championship game.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine South Florida’s chances of making it to the American Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Update: South Florida has been eliminated from the American Championship Game. With Navy and North Texas winning, they are 7-1, and the best record South Florida can achieve is 6-2.
South Florida’s American Championship Game Chances
Let’s take a look at the teams who are still in the mix, and their respective American Conference Championship Game chances:
- North Texas (7-1, 11-1): 100%
- Tulane (6-1, 8-2): 86.3%
- Navy (7-1, 9-2): 13.7%
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives South Florida a <0.01%Â chance of playing in the American Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is vs. Rice, which the PFSN College FPM has them winning in 70% of simulations.
South Florida’s only path to the American Conference Championship Game is to win and hope that both Tulane and North Texas lose, forcing a multi-team tiebreak at 6-2. If one of those two teams wins, then the American Championship Game will be out of reach for South Florida, as that team will join Navy on a 7-1 record, and East Carolina can only get to a maximum of six wins.
If we get to a situation where there is a multi-team tiebreak at 6-2, then it will come down to how each team ranks in a composite ranking of four analytics (Connolly SP+, SportSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI). The team with the best composite ranking would advance to the American Conference Championship Game.
We do not know the specifics of those rankings systems, and things will change after Week 14. However, as things stand, South Florida ranks tied third of those five teams in the PFSN Power Rankings, which is why our FPM gives them a <0.01% chance of making it to the American Conference Championship Game.
There are further tiebreakers if the analytic rankings do not separate the teams, which are conference strength of schedule, overall win percentage, and then a random draw.
What are South Florida’s Playoff Chances?
For teams in Group of Five conferences, such as The American, their path to the College Football Playoff is more complicated than for teams in Power 4 conferences. While technically, teams from the Group of Five conferences could make it with an “at-large” bid, doing so is extremely tough. However, there is one guaranteed spot for the highest-ranked Group of Five conference winner.
The PFSN College FPM gives South Florida a <0.01% chance of making the College Football Playoff. They make The American Championship Game in <0.01% of simulations, and win the conference in <0.01% of simulations.
South Florida is currently not ranked in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. The only Group of Five team to be ranked is Tulane, which South Florida may well have to beat in the American Championship Game. If they do that, they could potentially earn themselves a spot in the College Football Playoff as the highest-ranked Group of Five team.
The unknown in all of this is how the CFP Selection Committee views James Madison, who has an 11-1 record and is set to contest the Sun Belt Championship Game. Based on what we have seen so far in the CFP Selection Committee rankings, The American is viewed as the superior conference to the Sun Belt. However, South Florida is 8-3, which makes things challenging, although they were ranked by the committee two weeks ago.
If South Florida is in the College Football Playoff, the most likely outcome would be as the 12th seed. That would mean traveling to play the No. 5 seed in the first round.
Our simulations also give South Florida a <0.01% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a <0.01% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a <0.01% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
