Entering Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, Tulane had one foot in the American Conference Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. However, with three teams still alive in The American, Tulane’s playoff chances hinged on them making and winning the conference championship game.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Tulane’s chances of making it to the American Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Tulane’s American Championship Game Chances
Tulane entered Week 14 in good shape in the race for the American Conference Championship Game. Although they were the last team that was still alive in the race to play — following Navy’s win on Thursday and North Texas’ win on Friday — they had a significantly strong percentage chance of overwhelming an inferior opponent, the Charlotte 49ers, to end the year.
Tulane took care of its business on Saturday night, emerging with a 27-0 win that books its place in the American Championship Game. Furthermore, as the highest-ranked team in the College Football Playoff rankings, they hold the tiebreaker, enabling the title game to be held at Yulman Stadium. Speaking of the College Football Playoff…
What are Tulane’s Playoff Chances?
For teams in Group of Five conferences, such as The American, their path to the College Football Playoff is more complicated than for teams in Power 4 conferences. While technically, teams from the Group of Five conferences could make it with an “at-large” bid, doing so is extremely tough. However, there is one guaranteed spot for the highest-ranked Group of Five conference winner.
The PFSN College FPM gives Tulane a 54.3% chance of making the College Football Playoff. They make The American Championship Game in 90% of simulations, and win the conference in 54.8% of simulations.
Tulane is currently the only Group of Five team to be ranked in the College Football Playoff Selection Committee rankings. That means if they win out, they should take a spot in the College Football Playoff as the highest-ranked Group of Five team.
The unknown in all of this is how the CFP Selection Committee views James Madison, who has an 11-1 record and is set to contest the Sun Belt Championship Game. Based on what we have seen so far in the CFP Selection Committee rankings, The American is viewed as the superior conference to the Sun Belt. Tulane is 10-2, and if they limit their losses to two and win the conference championship, they should be fine..
If Tulane is in the College Football Playoff, the most likely outcome would be as the 11th or 12th seed. That would mean traveling to play the No. 5 or No. 6 seed in the first round.
Our simulations also give Tulane a 3.4% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 1.0% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.3% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
