The Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Indianapolis Colts 23-20 in Week 12. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes recorded his 20th career Fourth-Quarter Comeback, his first of the season after having seven last season. Kansas City had another slow start and failed to score a touchdown in the first half for the fourth time this season.
The Denver Broncos, meanwhile, were on bye. That doesn’t mean Denver didn’t move in the AFC Conference standings, though. In fact, the Broncos moved one slot. Let’s see where the Broncos rank in the AFC Conference now.
Examining Chiefs’ Win Over the Colts
While the Broncos were on bye, the New England Patriots defeated the Cincinnati Bengals 26-20 — meaning the Broncos were leapfrogged for the No. 1 seed in the AFC Conference. The Broncos, though, are the No. 2 seed in the AFC Conference after the Colts lost to the Chiefs in Week 12. After beating the Chiefs in Week 11, Kansas City does Denver a solid in Week 12.
The Broncos now hold a one-game lead over the Colts, the No. 3 seed, and a three-game lead over the Baltimore Ravens, the No. 4 seed, with six weeks left in the season. The Colts hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos, while Denver doesn’t play the Ravens this season.
In the AFC West, the Broncos are two games ahead of the 7-4 Los Angeles Chargers and three games ahead of the 6-5 Chiefs. Denver has one more matchup with both teams before the end of the regular season. The Las Vegas Raiders, meanwhile, are 2-9.
“Champions find ways.” – @M_Ryan02 following the Chiefs win over the Colts pic.twitter.com/PXuWjo6c7r
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 23, 2025
The 9-2 Broncos play the Washington Commanders, the Las Vegas Raiders, the Green Bay Packers, the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Los Angeles Chargers to close out the regular season. A conservative estimate has Denver finishing the season at 13-4.
Circling back to the 10-2 Patriots, New England plays the New York Giants, the Buffalo Bills, the Baltimore Ravens, the New York Jets, and the Miami Dolphins to close out the season. One possible benefit is that a conservative estimate has New England finishing the season at 13-4 as well.
The Broncos could also benefit from Buffalo’s recent struggles because they will need to beat the Patriots to maintain a firm hold on a playoff spot. The Ravens’ 1-5 start means they will be battling the Steelers the rest of the season for the AFC North title, and a Wild Card berth might be out of reach.
And the 8-3 Colts, meanwhile, play the Texans, the Jaguars, the Seahawks, the 49ers, the Jaguars, and the Texans to close out the season. A conservative estimate has Indianapolis finishing the season at 12-5.
The Broncos’ playoff odds, according to PFSN Analytics, dropped from 98.7% to 98.3% as well. That said, Denver’s odds to win the division dropped from 87.2% to 85.3%. And the Broncos’ odds to obtain the No. 1 seed actually leapfrogged from 32.6% to 32.1% thanks to the Colts’ loss.
The Broncos defense will need to continue leading the time as they have done for the past couple of seasons. Since the start of last season, Denver’s opponents have registered a D+ PFSN Offense Impact grade or worse grade 15 times. Only two have graded above C+, the Bengals (B-) and Ravens (B+), both were in 2024.
