Our college football bowl projections ahead of Week 14 include a prediction for the entire playoff and bowl game matchups for every postseason tilt, all powered by our PFSN College Impact metrics and College Football Playoff Meter.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff First Round
- No. 12 Tulane Green Wave vs. No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders
- No. 11 Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels
- No. 10 BYU Cougars vs. No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide
- No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 8 Oregon Ducks
Our post-Week 13 college football bowl projections begin with a shakeup in the College Football Playoff. The James Madison Dukes continue to be a strong contender for the postseason tournament, but there’s no denying that the Tulane Green Wave being ranked by the selection committee entering Week 13 sends a strong signal that the American champion will be in.
Meanwhile, Georgia Tech’s loss to Pitt in Week 13 opened up the door to a new scenario in the ACC, with the Virginia Cavaliers now in the pole position to win that conference and snag a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.
One noticeable sticking point comes with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who are currently ranked above both Alabama and BYU, but could fall out of the playoff if both of those teams play for (and win) a conference championship.
If the Oklahoma Sooners win in Week 14, they should be a lock to make the College Football Playoff, but everything around them is in complete flux. Notre Dame looks like a team that can win the whole thing right now, but Brent Venables’ team being ranked ahead of them following the latest rankings opens up the potential that they might slide outside the top 12.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Quarterfinal
- Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 7 Alabama
- Orange Bowl: No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 5 Texas Tech
- Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 8 Oregon
Using the PFSN FPM to simulate head-to-head matchups, Alabama, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, and Oregon all advance from the first round to face the top four teams that secured a quarterfinal berth in our college football bowl projections.
Ohio State and Indiana enter Week 14 as the top two teams in the country, and there is no reason to believe that the result of the Big Ten Championship Game (assuming the Buckeyes beat Michigan next weekend) will alter that trajectory if that game is close. Texas A&M and Georgia are still in the fight to play in the SEC Championship Game, but face tricky Week 14 ties.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Semifinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Georgia
- Peach Bowl: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
According to the PFSN FPM, Texas A&M would be a 53.4% favorite to beat Ole Miss on a neutral field, setting up a semifinal clash with the Hoosiers in our college football bowl projections. Indiana would be a 3.5-point favorite to get here by beating Alabama in the Cotton Bowl, with their defense more than a match for the Ty Simpson-led Crimson Tide.
Meanwhile, Georgia would be the narrowest of favorites to reach the semifinal, with a 50.4% win probability against Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl quarterfinal. In a game so close, you can rely on Kirby Smart’s coaching to be the difference. They’d face the Buckeyes in the Fiesta Bowl, with Ohio State considered a 66.9% favorite to gain revenge for the 2022 Peach Bowl defeat.
College Football Bowl Projections | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Indiana
Ohio State vs. Indiana has been a staple national title game in our college football bowl projections for several weeks, and at this moment, it’s difficult to argue with a repeat of the likely Big Ten Championship Game. This game would pit two exciting offenses, two elite defenses, and two of the top coaches in college football against each other.
The difference between the two teams narrows with each passing week, and the PFSN FPM currently projects the Buckeyes as a 2-point favorite with a 52.8% win probability. The College Football Playoff National Championship Game hasn’t been a close-fought affair for a while. This might make a nice change.
Projections for the Remaining 2025 College Football Bowl Games
Celebration Bowl
SC State vs. Jackson State
LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk
San Diego State vs. Washington
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Buffalo vs. Coastal Carolina
Cure Bowl
Southern Miss vs. UTSA
68 Ventures Bowl
Toledo vs. Troy
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Gasparilla Bowl
East Carolina vs. Louisville
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Boise State vs. Miami (OH)
Boca Raton Bowl
Louisiana vs. Fresno State
New Orleans Bowl
James Madison vs. Kennesaw State
Frisco Bowl
Marshall vs. Utah State
Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii vs. Louisiana Tech
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Central Michigan vs. Penn State
Rate Bowl
Baylor vs. Northwestern
First Responder Bowl
Memphis vs. NC State
Military Bowl
Wake Forest vs. USF
Pinstripe Bowl
Miami (FL) vs. Nebraska
Fenway Bowl
Clemson vs. North Texas
Pop-Tarts Bowl
SMU vs. Cincinnati
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
UNLV vs. Western Michigan
New Mexico Bowl
New Mexico vs. Missouri State
Gator Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. Tennessee
Texas Bowl
Iowa State vs. Missouri
Birmingham Bowl
Navy vs. UConn
Independence Bowl
Kansas State vs. California
Music City Bowl
Illinois vs. LSU
Alamo Bowl
Houston vs. USC
ReliaQuest Bowl
Iowa vs. Texas
Sun Bowl
Duke vs. Arizona
Citrus Bowl
Michigan vs. Vanderbilt
Las Vegas Bowl
Arizona State vs. Minnesota
Armed Forces Bowl
Army vs. FIU
Liberty Bowl
TCU vs. Washington State
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky
Holiday Bowl
Notre Dame vs. Utah
Bahamas Bowl
Jacksonville State vs. Ohio
