With a win in Week 13 of the 2025 College Football season, Michigan remains in the mix when it comes to the Big Ten Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. With four teams still alive in the Big Ten, Michigan’s playoff chances hang in the balance, and with two games remaining, they need some help if they want a shot at a conference championship.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Michigan’s chances of making it to the Big Ten Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Michigan’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Michigan a 4.8%Â chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship Game. Their remaining game is vs. Ohio State. The PFSN College FPM has them winning that game in 30.6% of simulations.
The key for Michigan is that they have to beat Ohio State. With Indiana and Ohio State assured of being at least 8-1, Michigan cannot fall to two in-conference losses. Nothing else matters for Michigan’s Big Ten hopes (and probably their playoff hopes) if they lose to Ohio State.
If Michigan wins both its remaining games, it still needs some help. They either need the Oregon to lose in Week 14 or Indiana to lose to Purdue to drag them into a multi-team tiebreaker.
What are Michigan’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team. The PFSN College FPM gives Michigan a 32.4% chance of making the College Football Playoff. They make the Big Ten Championship Game in 4.8% of simulations, and win the conference in 1.4% of simulations. That leaves them with a 32.4% chance of earning an “At-Large” selection.
Michigan is currently ranked 18th by the CFP Selection Committee. That puts them in a tough spot to make the College Football Playoff. However, if they were to beat Ohio State in Week 14, that would be a huge win that could see them jump up into the top-10 in the CFP Selection Committee rankings, even if they do not play in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Our simulations have Michigan as a top-four seed just 1.4% of the time, which would give them a bye through to the quarterfinals. Their best chance would be to beat Ohio State and go on to win the Big Ten, which could even secure them the No. 1 or No. 2 seed, depending on how other results unfold.
If not, then Michigan is most likely to be ranked anywhere from the No. 7 seed to the No. 11 seed, depending on how these final three weeks of games play out.
Our simulations also give Michigan a 4.7% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 1.6% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.55% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
