The American Conference has been one of the most competitive in the country this fall, and the winner is expected to make their way to meaningful late-December football with a College Football Playoff berth. Following Week 13, who are the contenders for the American Championship Game?
Using the PFSN College Football Playoff Meter (FPM), let’s break down the scenarios and chances for the teams in with a shot.
Which Teams Are Still Competing to Play in the American Conference Championship Game?
Let’s take a look at the teams who are still in the mix, and their respective American Conference Championship Game chances:
- Tulane (6-1, 8-2): 96.8%
- North Texas (6-1, 10-1): 66.6%
- Navy (6-1, 8-2): 36.6%
Before we dive into the complete scenarios, it is worth stating that scenarios for The American Championship Game are complicated by the tiebreakers they use. Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker, but if that does not break the tie, it is based on the College Football Playoff Committee rankings entering Week 14. If that does not resolve the tie, it is based on a combination of rankings from four different analytics services.
Entering Week 13, Tulane is the only team ranked currently by the CFP Selection Committee. If they win in Week 13, they will likely remain ranked and retain the highest ranking in the conference. None of the other teams has a sufficiently strong opponent that we would expect to see their standing boosted over Tulane. Therefore, if Tulane wins in Week 13, you would expect they to have a win in Week 14.
Tulane’s American Conference Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Tulane a 96.6%Â chance of playing in the American Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is vs. Charlotte. The PFSN College FPM has them winning that game in 83.2% of simulations.
Tulane is probably the only team with a scenario that we can feel 100% confident about sending them to the American Championship Game following Week 13. As they were ranked by the CFP Selection Committee this week and won, they are likely to remain ranked and remain the highest-ranked team in the conference.
That means if they win in Week 14, they would be assured not only of a spot in the American Championship Game, but it would likely be hosted in New Orleans for the third time in four years. With their conference loss being against a team that is not in the picture for the Championship Game, head-to-head cannot stop them in this scenario.
If Tulane loses in Week 14, then things get complicated. The ranked team must win in Week 14 to retain its advantage, so Tulane would once again be relying on the analytic rankings, and could be in trouble if either North Texas or Navy is ranked and wins in Week 14.
North Texas’s American Conference Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives North Texas a 66.6%Â chance of playing in the American Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is at Temple. The PFSN College FPM has them winning that game in 45.1% of simulations.
There were a number of complex scenarios for the Mean Green entering Week 13. However, a win over Rice clears up most complications. If North Texas beats Temple in Week 14, they will play in the American Championship Game.
With the head-to-head over Navy, the only way they will miss out is if the Midshipmen take down Memphis on Thanksgiving, and Temple pulls off a shock win in the regular-season finale.
Navy’s American Conference Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Navy a 36.6%Â chance of playing in the American Championship Game.
Their remaining conference game is at Memphis. The PFSN College FPM has them winning that game in 50.9% of simulations. Navy also plays Army in Week 16, which is a game between two teams in The American, but is not a conference game in terms of the standings.
The nightmare scenario for Navy would be to be tied at 7-1 with Tulane and North Texas. Tulane is currently the only ranked team by the CFP Selection Committee, and thus would win the multi-team tiebreaker. North Texas would then have the advantage over Navy due to their head-to-head win, having beaten them 31-17 a few weeks ago.
If there is to be a multi-team tie at 7-1, Navy needed East Carolina to be in there to cloud things a little and negate that head-to-head for North Texas. Then it would have come down to whether the CFP Selection Committee ranks any of the teams in the tiebreaker, or whoever has the best combined ranking from the four analytics companies. Unfortunately, East Carolina lost in Week 13, and it is unlikely to be involved in any tiebreaker.
Navy’s only real chance of hosting The American Championship Game would be for Tulane and North Texas to both lose a game each, or Navy gets the better of them in the CFP or analytic rankings.
How Do the American Conference Championship Tiebreaker Rules Work?
If two teams are tied for first place in the standings, they will both participate in the Championship Game. However, the tiebreaking procedure outlined below will be used to determine which team is considered the home team and which is considered the road team. In the event of a tie for second place in the standings, the following process will be used to determine who will advance to the American Conference Championship Game.
- The winner of any head-to-head matchup between the two teams (if applicable).
If there is no head-to-head, things vary depending on how many teams (if any) were ranked in the most recent CFP Selection Committee rankings before the final week of the season.
- If one of the teams was ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings and does not lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play, they will win the tiebreaker.
- If one of the teams was ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings and they lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play, a composite average of the following computer metrics will be used to determine the winner: Connolly SP+, SportSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI.
- If both of the teams were ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings, the higher-ranked team that does not lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play will win the tiebreaker.
- If both of the teams were ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings and both lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play, a composite average of the following computer metrics will be used to determine the winner: Connolly SP+, SportSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI.
- If neither of the teams was ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings, a composite average of the following computer metrics will be used to determine the winner: Connolly SP+, SportSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI.
If the teams remain tied after this process, the following tiebreakers are used:
1) Win percentage against all common conference opponents.
2) The team with the highest overall winning percentage, including both conference and non-conference games (excluding exempt games).
3) Coin toss.
The American Conference Three (or More) Team Tiebreakers
If, after any step in the following procedure, one or two teams are either superior or inferior to the others, they are removed from the tiebreaking procedure, and the remaining teams either go to the two-team tiebreaker or return to the start of the three-team tiebreaking procedure.
1) If all teams played each other, then the records for those teams in those games would be compared.
2) If all the teams did not play each other, but one team either defeated or was defeated by ALL the other teams, they shall be removed from the tiebreaking procedure.
If there is no head-to-head resolution, things vary depending on how many teams (if any) were ranked in the most recent CFP Selection Committee rankings before the final week of the season.
- If one of the teams was ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings and does not lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play, they will win the tiebreaker.
- If one of the teams was ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings and they lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play, a composite average of the following computer metrics will be used to determine the winner: Connolly SP+, SportSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI.
- If both of the teams were ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings, the higher-ranked team that does not lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play will win the tiebreaker.
- If both of the teams were ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings and both lose in the final weekend of regular-season Conference play, a composite average of the following computer metrics will be used to determine the winner: Connolly SP+, SportSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI.
- If neither of the teams was ranked in the last CFP Selection Committee rankings, a composite average of the following computer metrics will be used to determine the winner: Connolly SP+, SportSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI.
If the teams remain tied after this process, the following tiebreakers are used:
1) Win percentage against all common conference opponents.
2) The team with the highest overall winning percentage, including both conference and non-conference games (excluding exempt games).
3) Random draw.
If multiple teams are tied for top spot in The American standings, and two teams emerge as superior after any step, those two teams shall contest The American Championship Game. A two-team tiebreaker will be applied to determine the home and road designation.
