Entering Week 13, the ACC Championship Game scenarios were down to six of the 17 teams to fill the two spots in Charlotte. Then, a weekend of surprise results and some inevitabilities left just five teams remaining in the race for the title game.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine who is still in the mix and what their chances are of making it to the postseason.
Which Teams Are Still Competing to Play in the ACC Championship Game?
Let’s take a look at the six teams who are still in the mix, and their respective ACC Conference Game chances:
- Virginia: 80.1%
- SMU: 69.7%
- Pittsburgh: 22.7%
- Duke: 15.9%
- Georgia Tech: 11.6%
- Miami (FL): 0.4%
After beating Georgia Tech in Week 13, Pittsburgh faces Miami in Week 14, but those are the only games that these five teams play against each other.
Virginia’s ACC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Virginia an 80.1%Â chance of playing in the ACC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is vs. Virginia Tech. The PFSN College FPM has them winning that game in 76.3% of simulations. Results from Week 13 helped strengthen the Cavaliers’ chances of playing for a conference title.
Even if every team that currently has one loss in the ACC wins out in Week 14, Virginia holds the tiebreaker, and is in the driving seat. Subsequently, they have a 44.9% chance of winning the ACC Championship Game according to our post-Week 13 PFSN FPM numbers.
SMU’s ACC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives SMU a 69.7%Â chance of playing in the ACC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is at Cal. The PFSN College FPM has them winning that game in 61.4% of simulations. The Mustangs were the big winners from Week 13, watching Georgia Tech relinquish its hold at the head of the conference.
All Rhett Lashlee’s team has to do now is beat Cal in the season finale, and they’ll be assured of a place in the ACC Championship Game due to them holding the tiebreaker advantage over Pitt. Even with a loss, there is a small chance that the Mustangs can advance to the title game, but having seen the Golden Bears fall to Stanford, the Mustangs will fancy their chances.
Pittsburgh’s ACC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Pittsburgh a 22.7%Â chance of playing in the ACC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is at Miami, which they must win before any thoughts of a title game tilt can be considered.
Even then, Virginia is the main sticking point, as they are on course to have a better conference strength of schedule and a better record against common conference opponents than Pitt. The Panthers will be hoping for a Virginia loss to Virginia Tech.
Duke’s ACC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Duke a 15.9%Â chance of playing in the ACC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is at Wake Forest. The PFSN College FPM has them winning next week in 54.4% of simulations.
Duke has no choice but to win next week if it wants any chance of making the ACC Championship Game. At three losses, they would be beyond where Georgia Tech and Virginia can fall to, and would be eliminated.
Duke then needs Miami to beat Pittsburgh in Week 14, and they need SMU to lose at Cal in Week 14 or Virginia Tech to beat Virginia. Duke remains in the hunt entering Week 14, but they could need two other results to fall their way, even to have a chance.
Georgia Tech’s ACC Championship Game Chances
Georgia Tech was the most significant loser from Week 13. They entered the matchup with Pitt with a 60.9% chance of playing in the ACC Championship Game. However, after a substantial defeat, Brent Key’s team has just an 11.6% chance. They’re out of conference games and must rely on other teams to help them out.
Specifically, they require Virginia Tech to beat Virginia, SMU to lose to Cal, and Pitt to be defeated by Miami to give them a safe passage to the ACC Championship Game.
Miami’s ACC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Miami a 0.4%Â chance of playing in the ACC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is at Pittsburgh. The PFSN College FPM has them winning out in 54.6% of simulations.
Miami has no choice but to win in Pittsburgh if it wants any chance of making the ACC Championship Game. At three losses, they would be beyond where Georgia Tech and Virginia can fall to, and would be eliminated.
Miami needs either SMU to lose its final game or Virginia Tech to beat Virginia. There are scenarios in which Duke can win next week and Miami still makes the ACC Championship Game. However, the majority of those scenarios involve Miami facing Duke in the ACC Championship Game, which has just a 0.3% chance of happening.
If Duke and Miami both win, Miami needs Stanford to beat Cal, Pittsburgh to beat Georgia Tech, SMU to beat Cal, and Virginia Tech to beat Virginia to ensure Duke cannot claim the ACC Championship Game spot.
How Do the ACC Championship Tiebreaker Rules Work?
The ACC two-team tiebreakers could be used in the following situations: to break a tie for first place in the standings, to determine the “home” team for the ACC Championship Game, or in the event of a tie for second place in the standings, to determine the “road” team that participates in the ACC Championship Game.
The two-team tiebreakers will be applied in the following order:
1) The winner of any head-to-head matchup between the two teams (if applicable).
2) Win percentage against all common opponents.
3) Win percentage against common opponents based on the order of finish. This tiebreaker examines each opponent individually, progressing from top to bottom in the table, to identify a common opponent where one team has a superior result to the other.
4) Combined win percentage of each team’s conference opponents.
5) The team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics, following the conclusion of all regular-season games.
6) A random draw.
ACC Three (or more) Team Tiebreakers
At each stage of the following procedure, if any team is eliminated from the tiebreak, then all remaining teams will start again from the first step in the process:
1) If all teams are common opponents, then the combined head-to-head win percentage is used.
2) If one team defeated or was defeated by all the others in the tiebreaker, they shall be removed at this step.
3) Win percentage against all common opponents.
4)Win percentage against common opponents based on the order of finish. This tiebreaker examines each opponent individually, progressing from top to bottom in the table, to identify a common opponent where one team has a superior result to the other.
5) Combined win percentage of each team’s conference opponents.
6) The team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics, following the conclusion of all regular-season games.
7) A random draw.
