Following Week 13, the Big Ten Championship Game scenarios are narrowed down to four of the 18 teams that will fill the two spots in Indianapolis. While there are two clear favorites to compete in Indianapolis, there are still some potential twists and turns, as two of the four teams facing each other over the next two weeks.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine who is still in the mix and what their chances are of making it to the postseason.
Which Teams Are Still Competing to Play in the Big Ten Championship Game?
Let’s take a look at the five teams who are still in the mix, and their respective Big Ten Championship Game chances:
- Indiana (8-0, 11-0): 99.0%
- Ohio State (8-0, 11-0): 77.8%
- Oregon (7-1, 9-1): 18.5%
- Michigan (7-1, 8-2): 4.8%
In Week 14, Michigan then faces Ohio State in what looks set to be a Big Ten Championship Game eliminator.
Indiana’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Indiana a 99.0%Â chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is at Purdue. The PFSN College FPM has them winning that game in 83.3% of simulations.
Indiana’s situation is straightforward: if they win in Week 14, they will be in the Big Ten Championship Game. Where things get a little more interesting is if they were to lose to Purdue.
There are a few potential combinations where Indiana will miss out if it loses in Week 14. One such scenario would be if Oregon wins out and Michigan wins out, beating Ohio State in the process. That combination of results would leave Indiana and Ohio State on the outside watching the Big Ten Championship Game. The same scenario would play out if USC wins out instead of Oregon, with USC vs. Michigan in Indianapolis.
If Ohio State wins, Indiana always has the head-to-head advantage over Oregon in a straight tie at 8-1, as well as a common opponent advantage over USC due to their victory over Illinois.
Ohio State’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Ohio State a 77.8%Â chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship Game. Their remaining game is at Michigan, and the PFSN College FPM has them winning that game in 69.4% of simulations.
Ohio State’s situation is straightforward in principle: if they win in Week 14, they will secure a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game. Unsurprisingly, the Michigan game is the key. Even with Ohio State’s win over Rutgers, if they lose to Michigan, it will open the door for either Michigan or Oregon to advance to the Big Ten Championship Game.
Oregon’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Oregon an 18.5%Â chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship Game. Their remaining game is at Washington. The PFSN College FPM has them winning both of those games in 59.9% of simulations.
Oregon has to win in Week 14 if it wants any chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship Game. However, with both Indiana and Ohio State currently at 8-0, a win next week does not guarantee Oregon can make the Big Ten Championship Game.
If Oregon wins out, it needs Michigan to beat Ohio State to force a tiebreak at 8-1 with some combination of Ohio State, Michigan, and potentially Indiana. The worst-case scenario for an 8-1 Oregon would be Ohio State winning in Week 14. That would either see both Ohio State and Indiana at 9-0, or it would leave Oregon in a tiebreaker with Indiana, which they would lose due to their earlier loss to Indiana this season.
USC’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
USC has been eliminated from the Big Ten Championship Game with its loss to Oregon.
Michigan’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Michigan a 4.8%Â chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship Game. Their remaining game is vs. Ohio State. The PFSN College FPM has them winning that game in 30.6% of simulations.
The key for Michigan is that they have to beat Ohio State. With Indiana and Ohio State assured of being at least 8-1, Michigan cannot fall to two in-conference losses. Nothing else matters for Michigan’s Big Ten hopes (and probably their playoff hopes) if they lose to Ohio State.
If Michigan wins both its remaining games, it still needs some help. They either need the Oregon to lose in Week 14 or Indiana to lose to Purdue to drag them into a multi-team tiebreaker.
How Do the Big Ten Championship Tiebreaker Rules Work?
If two teams are tied for first place in the standings, they will both participate in the Championship Game. However, the tiebreaking procedure outlined below will be used to determine which team is considered the home team and which is considered the road team. In the event of a tie for second place in the standings, the following process will be followed to decide who will play in the Big Ten Championship Game.
1) The winner of any head-to-head matchup between the two teams (if applicable).
2) Win percentage against common opponents within the conference.
3) Win percentage against common opponents based on the order of finish. This tiebreaker examines each opponent individually, progressing from top to bottom in the table. If a group of common opponents is tied, then the head-to-head tiebreaker will be applied for that tie, and if it cannot split them, the combined record against the tied teams will be used.
4) The combined record of all conference opponents for each team. If, for any reason, one team has played fewer than nine conference games, the winning percentage will be used as opposed to the record.
5) Each team’s ranking by SportsSource Analytics’ capped relative total scoring margin versus all Conference opponents among tied teams.
6) Random draw.
Big Ten Three (or More) Team Tiebreakers
If, after any step in the following procedure, one or two teams are either superior or inferior to the others, they are removed from the tiebreaking procedure, and the remaining teams either go to the two-team tiebreaker or return to the start of the three-team tiebreaking procedure.
If two teams are tied for first place in the standings, they will both participate in the Championship Game. However, the tiebreaking procedure outlined below will be used to determine which team is considered the home team and which is considered the road team.
In the event of a tie for second place in the standings, the following process will be followed to decide who will play in the Big Ten Championship Game.
1) The winner of any head-to-head matchup between the two teams (if applicable).
2) Win percentage against common opponents within the conference.
3) Win percentage against common opponents based on the order of finish. This tiebreaker examines each opponent individually, progressing from top to bottom in the table, to identify a common opponent where one team has a superior result to the other.
5) The combined record of all conference opponents for each team. If, for any reason, one team has played fewer than nine conference games, the winning percentage will be used as opposed to the record.
6) Each team’s ranking by SportsSource Analytics’ capped relative total scoring margin versus all Conference opponents among tied teams.
7) Random draw.
If multiple teams are tied for top spot in the Big Ten standings, and two teams emerge as superior after any step, those two teams shall contest the Big Ten Championship Game. A two-team tiebreaker will be applied to determine the home and road designation.
