The Denver Broncos’ win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 12 has flipped the league on its head. Now, we are entering the aftermath. Analysts across the league are analyzing like how life be life-ing. To understand the Broncos’ win over the Chiefs, let’s look at the advanced stats. Let’s go.
Bo Nix’s Week 11 vs. Patrick Mahomes’ Week 11
ESPN‘s DJ Bien-Aime published a long-form article on Tuesday. In it, he focused on four matchups from Week 11. In his section about the Broncos-Chiefs, he points out how the Broncos’ Nix outplayed Mahomes in Week 11.
“The Broncos pulled out a 22-19 victory that tied them with the New England Patriots atop the AFC with 9-2 records. It was a key AFC West victory and one of four big matchups we’re focusing on through the Next Gen Stats prism. … Mahomes went 3-of-9 for 92 yards with one touchdown under pressure. His CPOE was minus-3.2% on throws under pressure. When he held the ball for over 2.5 seconds, he went 6-of-19 for 102 yards with an interception while Broncos quarterback Bo Nix went 14-of-25 for 230 yards in those situations,” Bien-Aime wrote.
In other words, the Broncos’ defense’s zone defense was better than the Chiefs’ defense’s zone defense. But everything is tacit knowledge, so some credit is due to Nix for executing — even if the Chiefs’ defense was flat in Week 11. Nix’s and Mahomes’ Week 11 stats are below.
Nix: 24 of 37 for a 64.9% completion percentage, 295 yards, eight yards per attempt, and a 89.4 passer rating.
Mahomes: 29 of 45 for a 64.4% completion percentage, 276 yards, a touchdown, an interception, 6.1 yards per attempt, and a 79.5 passer rating.
Nix’s touchdowns will come, but he aired the ball out in Week 11. That said, Mahomes looked flustered the entire game. He had a second interception called back by a penalty on the same drive he threw an interception. Not double-counting; just emphasizing how flustered Mahomes looked.
The Chiefs now have just 3% odds to win the AFC West. And Kansas City’s playoff odds now sit at 46.4%. Elsewhere, for the Broncos, based on remaining schedules, it looks like Denver can get to the AFC Championship game at worst. Time is our judge.
