Entering Week 13, the MAC Championship Game scenarios still had as many as eight potential teams that could fill the two available spots in Detroit. In a conference of 13 teams, that meant more than half the teams were still able to make the Championship Game with nine games to play.
The results from Tuesday and Wednesday night altered the equation slightly, and entering Wednesday, there are now only five teams that can make it to the MAC Championship Game. Kent State, Buffalo, and Ball State are the latest to be eliminated from contention.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine who is still in the mix and what their chances are of making it to the postseason.
Which Teams Are Still Competing to Play in the MAC Championship Game?
Entering the final week, five teams can still make it. Let’s take a look at the seven teams who are still in the mix, and their respective MAC Conference Game chances:
- Western Michigan (6-1, 7-4): 99.9%
- Miami (OH) (5-2, 6-5): 58.7%
- Toledo (5-2, 7-4): 24.3%
- Central Michigan (5-2, 7-4): 11.4%
- Ohio (5-2, 6-4): 5.6%
These are the remaining games in the MAC in 2025:
Week 14:
- Eastern Michigan vs. Western Michigan
- UMass vs. Bowling Green
- Buffalo vs. Ohio
- Northern Illinois vs. Kent State
- Central Michigan vs. Toledo
- Miami (OH) vs. Ball State
Western Michigan’s MAC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Western Michigan a 99.9%Â chance of playing in the MAC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is at Eastern Michigan.
For Western Michigan, the simplest scenario is to win at Eastern Michigan and advance to the MAC Championship Game. As the only team with only one conference loss, they will be 7-1 if they win, and no team in the conference can match that. The PFSN College FPM gives them a 55.9% chance of winning that game.
If Western Michigan loses in Week 14, there are nine scenarios where it could miss out on the MAC Championship Game. All of the scenarios involve Miami (OH) winning in Week 14, while eight of the scenarios involve Central Michigan beating Toledo. However, there is also one scenario where Toledo beats Central Michigan and makes the MAC Championship Game with Miami (OH).
If Western Michigan loses and both Miami (OH) and Central Michigan win, Western Michigan will miss the MAC Championship Game. The one scenario where both Miami (OH) and Toledo win would also require Bowling Green, Buffalo, and Kent State to win in the other three MAC matchups.
Miami (OH)’s MAC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Miami (OH) a 58.7%Â chance of playing in the MAC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is vs. Ball State. The PFSN College FPM gives them a 67.3% chance of winning out.
Miami (OH) is not guaranteed to make the MAC Conference Championship Game if it wins its last game. However, there are only four scenarios where Miami (OH) does not make the MAC Championship Game with a win. The common factor in all those scenarios is Western Michigan, Buffalo, and Toledo winning in Week 14.
What Miami (OH) needs to happen is to fall into a three-way tiebreaker with some combination of Toledo, Ohio, and Central Michigan. They need to avoid being in a two-way tiebreaker with Toledo, who beat them earlier this year.
Their loss to Ohio is negated by the fact that there will be a guaranteed three-way tiebreaker if Ohio and Miami (OH) win. The MAC tiebreakers do not eliminate teams that are swept by both opponents in the tiebreaker.
There are no scenarios where Miami (OH) can lose in Week 14 and still make the MAC Championship Game. One of Toledo or Central Michigan is guaranteed to get to 6-2, so Miami (OH) would miss out at 5-3 if they lose.
Ohio’s MAC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Ohio a 5.6%Â chance of playing in the MAC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is at Buffalo. The PFSN College FPM gives them a 52.9% chance of winning their remaining match.
Ohio is not guaranteed to make the MAC Championship Game if it beats Buffalo. In fact, there are only six scenarios out of a possible 32 where they win and make it. For Ohio to make the MAC Championship Game, they need the following to happen:
- They beat Buffalo
- Central Michigan beats Toledo
- Northern Illinois beats Kent State
- One or both of Western Michigan and Miami (OH) lose
Even if those scenarios do play out, it will ultimately come down to the SportSource analytics tiebreaker between them and Central Michigan, making it challenging to predict how that outcome could unfold. In PFSN’s College Power rankings, Ohio is slightly superior to Central Michigan, but it is very close and could easily change in Week 14.
Once Toledo won on Saturday, it complicated Ohio’s path. They needed the ability to get into a two-way tiebreaker with Miami (OH), and that is now gone, as Toledo or Central Michigan is assured of reaching 6-2.
The problem for Ohio is that Toledo and Central Michigan both have tiebreaker advantages over them. Toledo has the better record against a common opponent in Ball State, while Central Michigan has a slight edge in conference strength of schedule. However, that could be offset by Northern Illinois and Kent State winning, which would push it to the SportSource tiebreaker.
There is no scenario in which Ohio can lose to Buffalo and still make the MAC Championship Game.
Toledo’s MAC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Toledo a 24.3%Â chance of playing in the MAC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is at Central Michigan. The PFSN College FPM gives them a 47.6% chance of winning that game.
Toledo is not guaranteed to make the MAC Championship Game if it wins next week. Toledo needs at least one of Ohio or Miami (OH) to lose for them to make the MAC Championship Game. In a two-way tiebreaker, they have the head-to-head over Miami (OH) and a better common opponent tiebreaker over Ohio.
A three-way tiebreaker is a no-go because Miami (OH) would be 3-0 against common opponents with both Toledo and Ohio. A four-way tiebreaker with Western Michigan would also break against Toledo. Still, a three-way tiebreaker involving either Ohio or Miami (OH) with Western Michigan would favor Toledo, making it the second-placed team.
Toledo cannot make the MAC Championship Game if it loses in Week 14.
Central Michigan’s MAC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Central Michigan an 11.4%Â chance of playing in the MAC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is vs. Toledo. The PFSN College FPM gives them a 52.4% chance of winning that game.
Central Michigan cannot be assured of making the MAC Championship Game. The simplest scenario for them to make it would be they win and both Ohio and Miami (OH) lose leaving Central Michigan as the only team at 6-2.
In a two-way tie with Ohio, they currently have a better conference strength of schedule (but even that is not guaranteed). A two-way tie with Miami (OH) will break in favor of Miami (OH), as would a three-way tiebreaker with Ohio and Miami (OH).
If Western Michigan loses, it opens up more opportunities for Central Michigan to make it. Regardless of what combination of them, Ohio and Miami (OH) sit at 6-2 alongside Western Michigan, and Central Michigan has a good chance of making the MAC Championship Game.
There are no scenarios in which Central Michigan can lose its final game and make it to the MAC Championship Game.
Buffalo’s MAC Championship Game Chances
Buffalo was eliminated from the MAC Championship Game following Wednesday’s results.
Ball State’s MAC Championship Game Chances
Ball State was eliminated from the MAC Championship Game following Wednesday’s results.
Kent State’s MAC Championship Game Chances
Kent State was eliminated from the MAC Championship Game following Ohio’s win on Tuesday.
This was an excellent article.
Please update after last nights games