USF and Navy were due for a legendary clash in Week 12, and it didn’t disappoint. The outcome will have ramifications for the American Conference Championship and beyond. Here’s where both teams stand as the dust settles.
USF Suffers Crushing Setback, Navy Steers Closer to American Title Game
The Navy Midshipmen secured a steely 41-38 upset over 24th-ranked USF in Week 12, in a game that featured a 39-point fourth quarter between the two teams. Navy was up 24-9 at the half, and fended off a comeback bid from Byrum Brown and the Bulls on senior night.
With the win, Navy improves to 8-2 on the year and 6-1 in conference play, while USF falls to 7-3 and 4-2 in conference play. Navy now leads four teams in the American conference with just one conference loss.
Senior Day. Ranked Win. Final.#GoNavy | #RollGoats pic.twitter.com/jcJmGlpsfO
— Navy Football (@NavyFB) November 15, 2025
It was a contest headlined by the running game, with Alex Tecza, Braxton Woodson, and Blake Horvath combining for over 300 rushing yards on the Navy sideline, while Brown ran for almost 150 yards and passed for 308 yards and two scores.
Ultimately, however, the Midshipmen outlasted Alex Golesh and the ranked Bulls. For USF, it’s a potentially devastating loss for a fringe CFB Playoff contender, while the Midshipmen inch closer to conference glory.
USF and Navy American Championship Game Percentage Changes
Navy’s Championship game chances almost doubled with their win over USF, according to PFSN’s CFB Playoff Meter, while the Bulls’ Championship game chances were cut by two-thirds. Once a heavy favorite to make the final game, USF is on the outside looking in, while Navy has new life.
USF Bulls Championship Percentage Changes After Navy Loss
- USF chance to make the American CG pregame: 44.6%
- USF chance to make the American CG with a loss: 14.0%
Navy Midshipmen Championship Percentage Changes After USF Victory
- Navy chance to make the American CG pregame: 28.5%
- Navy chance to make the American CG with a win: 54.4%
On top of the chances in conference title viability, this loss also drastically affects USF’s fleeting playoff hopes. Before the game, the Bulls had a 15% chance of making the CFB Playoffs as the Group of Six representative. Now, USF’s chances of making the CFB Playoffs have dropped to just 3.4%.
On the flip side, the Midshipmen entered the game with a 7.8% chance of making the CFB Playoffs. Their chances have almost doubled after the win, as they now sit at 14.9% — near where USF was positioned pre-game.
The loss shouldn’t cast too much of a pall on what’s been a stellar season for Golesh and the Bulls — headlined by a massive upset victory over the Miami Hurricanes earlier in the year — but Brian Newberry out-coached Golesh in this game, and Navy is still in the hunt, with much stronger positioning as a result.
