The Big Ten Championship Game is on the horizon, but it’s still undecided which teams make the cut. With up to seven teams still in contention entering Week 12, there was plenty to play for. For some, there still is. However, multiple teams fell by the wayside this week. How is the race to Indianapolis shaping up with two full weeks of regular-season action to come?
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine who is still in the hunt and what their chances are.
Which Teams Are Still Competing to Play in the Big Ten Championship Game?
Following the Week 12 action, there are just five teams still alive in the race for the Big Ten Championship Game. The Minnesota Golden Gophers fell by the wayside on Friday night. Meanwhile, in arguably the biggest game in the conference this week, the USC Trojans mustered up a masterful comeback to take the Iowa Hawkeyes out of contention, keeping their own dreams alive.
The Michigan Wolverines escaped from a close-fought encounter with the Northwestern Wildcats unscathed and cling to hopes of playing in Lucas Oil Stadium on the first weekend in December. All the while, the Indiana Hoosiers and Ohio State Buckeyes continued their seemingly inevitable march toward the Big Ten Championship Game, with Oregon waiting in the wings.
Here’s how the probabilities align heading out of Week 12:
- Indiana (11-0, 8-0): 92.6%
- Ohio State (10-0, 7-0): 71.5%
- Oregon (9-1, 6-1): 16.1%
- USC (8-2, 6-1): 10.3%
- Michigan (8-2, 6-1): 9.6%
Indiana’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Indiana a 92.6% chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship Game with just one more conference encounter against Purdue (2-9, 0-8) to come. It would take a loss to the Boilermakers and multiple results going against the Hoosiers to stop Curt Cignetti’s team from making it to Indianapolis.
They hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with Oregon but haven’t played any of the other teams in contention this season.
Ohio State’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Ohio State a 71.5%Â chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship Game after defeating the UCLA Bruins comfortably in Week 12. The Buckeyes still have to face Rutgers before travelling to Ann Arbor for ‘The Game’ rivalry with Michigan.
As long as Ohio State takes care of business against Rutgers, it’ll have the inside track for the Big Ten Championship game. A loss against Michigan in Week 14, however, opens the door for both the Wolverines and USC to re-enter the conversation, if the Trojans manage to win out.
Oregon’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
After defeating Minnesota on Friday night, PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Georgia a 16.5%Â chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship Game. Their remaining conference games are vs. USC (7-2, 5-1) and at Washington (6-3, 3-3).
Of the remaining Big Ten Championship contenders, the Ducks have perhaps the hardest road ahead. The Friday night win was a nice statement after nearly falling to Iowa. Still, the race to the Big Ten Championship is a numbers game, not an eye test, and ultimately, if the Hoosiers and Buckeyes take care of business, they’ll be able to shut out Oregon from the contest.
USC’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives USC a 10.3%Â chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship Game following the win over Iowa. Next up, a road trip to Eugene to face Oregon before ending the season against UCLA.
The Trojans’ best chance is if they win out, but even then, they need help from Michigan in Week 14. If the Wolverines beat Ohio State that week, they hand OSU a loss that drops the Buckeyes into the conference scrum. And in a tiebreaker exercise, USC has the head-to-head victory over Michigan.
Looking at how Ohio State has played this year, it would take a miracle for things to fall USC’s way — but college football is home to chaos every year.
Michigan’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Michigan a 9.6% chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship Game following its narrow win over Northwestern. They must now overcome Maryland on the road before “welcoming” Ohio State to the Big House.
On the surface, Michigan’s road to the Big Ten Championships is fairly simple. The Wolverines need to win against Ohio State in Week 14, or they’re out. Even with that circled date, however, there are still other factors at play.
USC — a fellow Big Ten contender with one conference loss — has the tiebreaker win over Michigan, so if the two teams stay equal in the pecking order and it comes down to those two, the Trojans win the tiebreaker equation. Thus, if USC wins out, Michigan will have little to play for outside of knocking off its rival Buckeyes (which is incentive enough, to be fair).
However, if USC drops its game against Oregon and Michigan wins against Maryland, Michigan will walk into Week 14 with a chance to unseat the Buckeyes as the second Big Ten title game competitor.
On paper, the Buckeyes look like the heavy favorites — but Sherrone Moore’s squad beat another favored Buckeyes team at the end of last season, and they’ll have home-field advantage this time.
How Do the Big Ten Championship Tiebreaker Rules Work?
If two teams are tied for first place in the standings, they will both participate in the Championship Game. However, the tiebreaking procedure outlined below will be used to determine which team is considered the home team and which is considered the road team. In the event of a tie for second place in the standings, the following process will be followed to decide who will play in the Big Ten Championship Game.
1) The winner of any head-to-head matchup between the two teams (if applicable).
2) Win percentage against common opponents within the conference.
3) Win percentage against common opponents based on the order of finish. This tiebreaker examines each opponent individually, progressing from top to bottom in the table. If a group of common opponents is tied, then the head-to-head tiebreaker will be applied for that tie, and if it cannot split them, the combined record against the tied teams will be used.
4) The combined record of all conference opponents for each team. If, for any reason, one team has played fewer than nine conference games, the winning percentage will be used as opposed to the record.
5) Each team’s ranking by SportsSource Analytics’ capped relative total scoring margin versus all Conference opponents among tied teams.
6) Random draw.
Big Ten Three (or More) Team Tiebreakers
If, after any step in the following procedure, one or two teams are either superior or inferior to the others, they are removed from the tiebreaking procedure, and the remaining teams either go to the two-team tiebreaker or return to the start of the three-team tiebreaking procedure.
If two teams are tied for first place in the standings, they will both participate in the Championship Game. However, the tiebreaking procedure outlined below will be used to determine which team is considered the home team and which is considered the road team.
In the event of a tie for second place in the standings, the following process will be followed to decide who will play in the Big Ten Championship Game.
1) The winner of any head-to-head matchup between the two teams (if applicable).
2) Win percentage against common opponents within the conference.
3) Win percentage against common opponents based on the order of finish. This tiebreaker examines each opponent individually, progressing from top to bottom in the table, to identify a common opponent where one team has a superior result to the other.
5) The combined record of all conference opponents for each team. If, for any reason, one team has played fewer than nine conference games, the winning percentage will be used as opposed to the record.
6) Each team’s ranking by SportsSource Analytics’ capped relative total scoring margin versus all Conference opponents among tied teams.
7) Random draw.
If multiple teams are tied for top spot in the Big Ten standings, and two teams emerge as superior after any step, those two teams shall contest the Big Ten Championship Game. A two-team tiebreaker will be applied to determine the home and road designation.
