Entering Week 12 of the 2025 College Football season, Texas remained in the mix when it comes to competing in the SEC Championship Game and taking part in the College Football Playoff. After a loss to the Georgia Bulldogs, that outlook looks a little less clear.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Texas’s chances of making it to the SEC Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Texas’s SEC Championship Game Chances
After losing to the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 12, the Texas Longhorns are no longer mathematically capable of reaching the SEC Championship Game. In a win-or-bust matchup, Steve Sarkisian was out-coached by Kirby Smart, and quarterback Arch Manning simply couldn’t escape the attentions of a swarming Bulldogs defense that is getting hot at the right time.
While the loss took them out of contention for the SEC Championship Game, that doesn’t mean that the final conference game is for nothing. Firstly, there is the rivalry with the Texas A&M Aggies to consider — especially if that impacts Mike Elko’s team’s chances of reaching Atlanta. Furthermore, there is a College Football Playoff opportunity still remaining.
What are Texas’s Playoff Chances?
Entering Week 12, there were two routes into the College Football Playoff for Texas: win the SEC Championship Game or be an at-large team. After one of those options was removed, the PFSN College FPM currently gives Texas a 0.2% chance of competing in the College Football Playoff as an “At-large” bid.
That would see the Longhorns filter into the 11th-seed, with an average seeding of 10.93. However, even that seems a stretch, with the fourth and fifth-ranked conference champions looking increasingly likely to come from outside the top 12 teams.
Our simulations also give Texas a 0.02% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 0.01% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.01% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
