The latest College Football Playoff rankings didn’t do BYU any favors. The Cougars dropped five spots to No. 12, and while they’re still technically in the mix, the road ahead is narrow and full of obstacles.
Obviously, if BYU wins the Big 12, they’re in. However, anything short of that, the path to the playoffs becomes extremely complicated, as they must rely heavily on other results across the country to break their way.
What BYU Needs to Happen Around the Country
As one fan pointed out on social media, BYU’s playoff hopes hinge on a series of very specific outcomes across the top of the rankings. In short, Texas and Oklahoma need to lose.
Big 12 brethren, it is time to start rooting for Alabama, Texas A&M, and Georgia.
If BYU wants in the playoffs, Texas and Oklahoma need to lose their matchups against those teams.
Starting now, Roll Tide, Gig’em, and Go Dawgs!
— The Coal Country Podcast (@coalcountrywvu) November 12, 2025
That’s easier said than done with how much talent both of those teams possess, but they still have a very difficult path ahead.
- Texas still has Georgia and Texas A&M on the schedule, both major tests that could swing playoff positioning.
- Oklahoma faces Alabama, Missouri, and LSU to end the season. Another heavyweight matchup between Alabama, which could determine how many SEC teams end up in the bracket, and some other quality SEC opponents that can win any given week.
If either Texas or Oklahoma wins out, chaos could erupt at the top, potentially pushing BYU out of contention entirely. A three-loss SEC team might even leapfrog the Cougars depending on the “eye test,” especially if BYU doesn’t look dominant down the stretch.
The At-Large Door Is Closing
After their recent loss and subsequent drop in the rankings, any hopes BYU had for an at-large playoff berth are effectively dwindling before our eyes. The Cougars’ best route now is through the Big 12 Championship Game.
If BYU can beat Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, its playoff spot would be secured, and it would give the conference a strong argument for multiple playoff bids. In fact, the Big 12 as a whole is rooting for BYU to win the title, as it would give the conference more exposure and respect, providing its best shot at placing two teams in the CFP field.
BYU’s Other Rooting Interests: Notre Dame, Michigan, and USC
Beyond the Big 12, BYU will also be keeping an eye on several teams ahead and behind them:
- Notre Dame: A loss by the Fighting Irish would do wonders for BYU’s playoff chances. Notre Dame has a challenging November matchup with a red-hot Pittsburgh team on College GameDay, a game that could significantly impact the rankings. This might be the last real test for the Fighting Irish, so BYU will be watching this game closely.
- Michigan: The Wolverines could vault up the standings with an easier rest of their schedule, and if they win against Ohio State, it might make it difficult for BYU to surpass them.
- USC: The Trojans have an opportunity to upset Oregon, another team in playoff contention. To add to that, they have a tough matchup against ranked Iowa and end things off in a battle with rival UCLA.
- Vanderbilt: While not a traditional power, the Commodores could make noise with a ranked win over Tennessee, which would help the SEC’s narrative, something BYU does not want to see.
The reality is that BYU fans will be wearing a lot of different hats in November, cheering for upsets across the board while still needing the Cougars to take care of their own business.
Control What You Can Control
For BYU, the path forward is clear, even if it’s steep. The Cougars must win out, including taking home the Big 12 Championship, to secure a playoff spot.
They’ll need to prove that the Texas Tech loss was a fluke, not a trend, and that their earlier success wasn’t smoke and mirrors. Style points matter, and every performance from here on out will be under the microscope.
Anything short of a conference title, and the Cougars will likely find themselves on the outside looking in when the playoff field is announced.
Final Thoughts
The dream isn’t dead, but it’s hanging by a thread.
BYU’s playoff hopes depend not only on their own performance but on how the rest of the college football landscape shakes out. If the Cougars can win the Big 12 and look dominant doing it, then there’s no debate. But if they lose and Texas or Oklahoma stay hot, with other chaos striking elsewhere, BYU could become another victim of the unforgiving playoff system.
For now, the mission (no pun intended) is simple: win, hope, and keep the faith.
