Carlos Alcaraz will open his ATP Finals campaign on Sunday, November 9, against Australia’s Alex de Minaur. The Spaniard arrives after a phenomenal season, carrying a commanding 67–8 win-loss record and aiming to assert his dominance at the prestigious year-end event in Turin. His 2025 highlights include Masters 1000 triumphs in Monte Carlo, Rome, and Cincinnati; ATP 500 crowns in Rotterdam, Queen’s Club, and Tokyo; and most notably, Grand Slam victories at Roland Garros and the US Open.
World No. 7 De Minaur heads into Turin boasting a solid 55–21 record for the season. His best result this year was winning the Mubadala Citi DC Open, and he also reached the final in Rotterdam. With both players eager to launch their campaigns in commanding fashion, this matchup promises to be an intense one.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex De Minaur Match Details
Date: November 9, 2025
Tournament: ATP Finals 2025
Round: (Group stage) Round-Robin
Venue: Inalpi Arena, Turin, Italy
Category: ATP Finals
Surface: Indoor hardcourt
Live Telecast: Tennis Channel, TSN, Sky Sports
Alcaraz vs De Minaur Head-to-Head
Alcaraz has firmly dominated this rivalry so far, winning all four of their previous encounters. With a 4–0 head-to-head lead, he carries a clear psychological advantage into his ATP Finals opener against the Australian. Their most recent clashes came earlier this season: Alcaraz prevailed 6-4, 3-6, 6-2 in the Rotterdam final and backed it up with a 7-5, 6-3 victory in the Barcelona Open quarterfinals.
Alcaraz vs De Minaur Prediction
Alcaraz’s serve will be a key weapon against the Australian in Turin. This season, he has won 87% of his service games and claimed 68% of his total service points, underscoring how difficult he is to break. His return numbers are equally imposing, converting 44% of his break-point chances and winning 32% of return games.
De Minaur, meanwhile, trails slightly in each of these categories but remains highly competitive. He has won 85% of his service games and 67% of his total service points this season. He also boasts a 43% break-point conversion rate and has claimed 30% of return games, numbers that underline his relentless counterpunching style.
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However, De Minaur’s recent form on indoor courts should not be overlooked. He enjoyed a strong lead-up to the ATP Finals, reaching the semifinals in Vienna and the quarterfinals in Paris. By contrast, Alcaraz played only the Paris Masters during the indoor swing and suffered a second-round exit.
But Alcaraz’s proven success on the biggest stages, combined with his commanding head-to-head record against De Minaur, could give him an edge heading into this contest. The World No. 2Â enters as the favorite to come away with the victory.
Pick: Alcaraz to win in three sets
