Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating or most rewarding part of fantasy football. Here to help you make those decisions are our start ’em and sit ’em picks. Fantasy decisions will only get more difficult from here on out, so let’s take a look at our Week 9 start/sit plays.
Start ‘Em: Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks (at WAS)
It’s interesting how one ill-timed bad game can really linger. Sam Darnold has been excellent all season. But he posted a dud in Week 7 against the Houston Texans, throwing for 213 yards and a touchdown while turning the ball over twice. Then, the Seattle Seahawks had their bye. That means it’s been three weeks since we saw Darnold actually play well.
But before that disastrous outing against the Texans, Darnold had posted at least 16 fantasy points in five straight contests. He only had one truly elite performance, but he came with a high floor.
Hopefully, the Washington Commanders get Jayden Daniels back after just one game missed due to a minor hamstring strain. That would be great for the overall scoring environment. Even if they don’t, though, Darnold should have plenty of opportunities against a defense allowing the 12th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
The Commanders will have no answer for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. As long as Zach Charbonnet doesn’t steal all the touchdowns, Darnold should be in for an excellent outing this week.
Joe Flacco, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. CHI)
Is Joe Flacco even a weekly streamer anymore? At this point, it feels like he’s graduated to an every-week starter.
Whether Flacco is matchup-proof remains to be seen, in Week 9, we don’t have to worry about that because the matchup is great.
Since joining the Cincinnati Bengals, Flacco has posted at least 18.7 fantasy points in every start. He is averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. At over 40 years old, Flacco is performing like an elite QB1. Now, he gets a Chicago Bears defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Coming off an awful loss at home to the previously winless New York Jets, the Bengals need this game. All of their games are shootouts. They’re at home. Everything points to another strong performance from Flacco.
Kimani Vidal, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (at TEN)
Yes, it is a lot easier to recommend starting a player coming off a great game than the reverse. But let’s not pretend as if Kimani Vidal is some every-week no-doubt fantasy starter.
The first half didn’t quite go his way against the Minnesota Vikings, but he dominated in the second half. Ultimately, Vidal carried the ball 23 times for 117 yards and a touchdown, posting 19.7 fantasy points. And that was against an excellent Vikings defense.
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Regardless of Hassan Haskins’ status, this is Vidal’s backfield until Omarion Hampton returns, which won’t be this week. That means Vidal gets the pleasure of running against a Tennessee Titans defense allowing the second most fantasy points per game to running backs.
The Los Angeles Chargers should have a positive game script throughout, resulting in another 20-touch game for the unexpected star running back.
Bam Knight, RB, Arizona Cardinals (at DAL)
Now, we are digging a bit deeper. Bam Knight has been involved in three games for the Cardinals since Trey Benson’s knee injury. He’s posted 9.4, 12.4, and 9.4 fantasy points. Those numbers are usable, but nothing special.
Knight took over the lead back role after Michael Carter failed to impress coaches in his chance at being the lead back. We do not indicate that anything is about to change, and Carter certainly hasn’t done anything to demand it. That means Knight should once again be the lead back.
The snap share will likely be close. Knight was only at 51% and 45% in his two games as the primary back. But in Week 7, before his bye, Knight saw 18 opportunities. That’s the number we care about.
The Cowboys allow the fourth most fantasy points per game to running backs. They constantly find themselves in shootouts. And Knight appears to be the goal-line back. He is an excellent RB2 option in Week 9.
Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers (at NYG)
Remember when Kendrick Bourne was Jerry Rice for two weeks? That was fun. He was always going to be a flash in the pan, though. A placeholder until the actually talented pass catchers returned to action.
Jauan Jennings is finally healthy and has reclaimed his status as the 49ers’ WR1. The production hasn’t quite followed yet, but he’s now seen seven targets, catching four passes in consecutive games.
It’s been a tough three weeks if you thrust Jennings back into your lineups upon his return. However, things are about to get easier.
The Giants allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. With this game being on the road, the 49ers are probably not going to overwhelm New York. We could get a competitive contest and one where San Francisco can’t lean extra hard on Christian McCaffrey. Fire up Jennings in what should be his best game since returning from injury.
Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts (at PIT)
Over the past month, Josh Downs has played three games while missing one due to a concussion. He’s hit double-digit fantasy points in all of them.
In Weeks 5 and 6, we saw encouraging volume. Downs saw target counts of eight and seven, hauling in six passes in each.
Last week was a bit more fluky. Downs only saw three targets; he just happened to catch them all and score. If not for the touchdown, it would’ve been a disaster for fantasy managers.
Daniel Jones prioritizes his WR1, Michael Pittman Jr., and his TE1, Tyler Warren, ahead of Downs. That’s always going to be the case. But there will still be spots to use Downs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are not the vaunted defense fantasy managers should fear. They’re allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. More specifically, they struggle defending the slot, which is where Downs almost exclusively lines up.
There’s always a risk that Jonathan Taylor dominates like he did last week. But on the road, this game should be much more competitive, and the Steelers are more vulnerable through the air than on the ground.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys (vs. ARI)
Fantasy managers are a reactionary bench. Knowing a guy like Jake Ferguson is even capable of posting a literal zero would give anyone pause about inserting him into lineups.
As frustrating as last week’s bagel was, let’s remember what Ferguson was doing before then. He had recorded six consecutive games of at least 12.3 fantasy points, including at least 16.8 points in five of them. The veteran tight end had scored in four straight. He didn’t become bad based on one awful game.
The Broncos have a great defense. Nothing worked for the Cowboys’ passing game. It wasn’t just Ferguson.
Things should be much easier this week with the Cowboys at home, squaring off against an Arizona Cardinals defense allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Expect a huge bounce-back performance from the entire offense.
Colston Loveland, TE, Chicago Bears (at CIN)
Last week, Colston Loveland looked quite appealing. Rookies typically improve as the season wears on. He’s a talented player. Cole Kmet was out. Many signs pointed to this being the week Loveland arrived. Instead, the Bears managed just 16 points against one of the league’s worst defenses and lost by two touchdowns to Tyler Huntley.
Amidst the Chicago Bears’ embarrassing performance, there were positives, particularly with Loveland. The rookie tight end actually did post his best game of the season. It was only 6.8 fantasy points, but his five targets and 38 yards were season highs.
More importantly, Loveland played a season-high 81% of the snaps and ran a route on 78% of Caleb Williams’ dropbacks. The usage is improving. He’s better than Kmet. And now he gets a Bengals defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Perhaps we were one week early on the breakout.
Sit ‘Em: Bo Nix QB, Denver Broncos (at HOU)
It has been a very up-and-down sophomore season for Bo Nix. He’s posted four games over 20 fantasy points, including a super elite matchup-winning 39.9-point performance against the New York Giants in Week 7.
While Nix’s floor has been reasonably high, he does have games of 8.8, 13.4, and 13.4 points. There is a downside as well. This week shapes up to be another underwhelming outing from Nix.
The Houston Texans may not be clicking yet offensively, but they certainly are on defense. They’re allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks have scored more than 17 points against this defense.
Denver is coming off a leisurely blowout victory over the Dallas Cowboys. This is a prime spot for a letdown on the road against a difficult opponent. Nix is poised to underwhelm this week.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans (vs. DEN)
Doubling up on the same game, we have Nix’s counterpart. C.J. Stroud has been a disappointing fantasy quarterback since the start of his sophomore season. The guy who exceeded all expectations as a rookie seems so far away. Last week, though, he returned.
Stroud had his best game of the season, throwing for 318 yards and two touchdowns. His previous high in yardage was just 244. It marked the third time all season Stroud surpassed 15 fantasy points. And he did it without Nico Collins or Christian Kirk against a good 49ers defense. It was a very impressive outing. Is he really about to do it again?
The Broncos just stymied an on-fire Dak Prescott, limiting him to a season-low 188 scoreless yards. Prescott was coming off four consecutive games of at least three touchdown passes. He recorded 8.6 fantasy points against this elite defense.
On the season, Denver is allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. This game has all the makings of a low-scoring field goal fest. Do not chase last week’s points and leave Stroud on your bench.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints (at LAR)
For multiple years, fantasy managers have wondered whether Alvin Kamara would decline. Will the aging running back lose a stop? Will playing a bad offense hinder his production? Kamara staved off Father Time for a couple of years, but it appears the Grim Reaper has come to collect.
This does appear to be the beginning of the end for one of the best running backs of this generation. Kamara is averaging a career-worst 3.6 yards per carry. He’s seeing career lows in receiving volume as Kellen Moore’s offense emphasizes pushing the ball downfield over checking it down to the running back, which was a Derek Carr staple.
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Here are some things Kamara hasn’t done in a while or at all. He hasn’t scored since Week 1. He hasn’t rushed for 100 yards. He hasn’t hit 50 receiving yards in a game. He hasn’t exceeded 16 fantasy points in a game. Kamara has as many games with single-digit fantasy points as double-digit.
Now, Kamara gets a Los Angeles Rams defense that is rested and refreshed coming off their bye, and that is allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. This is a recipe for another single-digit outing from the once elite running back.
Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard, RBs, Carolina Panthers (at GB)
Remember when Rico Dowdle was the second coming of LaDainian Tomlinson? Those two weeks may go down in history similar to that brief stretch where Jay Ajayi (who was never actually good) had multiple 200-yard rushing games. Moments in time. You just had to be there.
Since Chuba Hubbard’s return, this backfield has been a true 50/50 committee. Dowdle has been the more efficient runner, but Hubbard has been the one to score. For fantasy purposes, neither is anything more than an RB3 while both are healthy.
Now, the Carolina Panthers running backs get to deal with a Green Bay Packers defense allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. Carolina is on the road and likely to face a negative game script. When they are trailing, they typically throw, and not to their running backs. Unless one of Dowdle or Hubbard falls into the end zone, neither is likely to reach double-digit fantasy points.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders (at SEA)
Terry McLaurin returned on Monday night after a four-game absence due to a mysterious quad injury. He looked healthy overall, but his underwhelming season continued.
Yes, McLaurin did catch his first touchdown of the season. However, he only saw four targets, catching three of them for 54 yards. Two of those receptions weren’t even designed targets. They were miracle grabs by a talented receiver.
McLaurin may go right back on the shelf this week as he aggravated his quad in the Washington Commanders’ loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. He said his quad was “alright” after the game, though.
If McLaurin does play, the matchup is not great against a Seattle Seahawks defense that allows the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Plus, there is no guarantee Jayden Daniels returns. Marcus Mariota looked overwhelmed on Monday night, and Seattle has a better defense than Kansas City.
With all of the byes and injuries, you may not be able to, since McLaurin, if he plays. But if you can, you should.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos (at HOU)
For the first time all season, Courtland Sutton had a fantasy outing that was between 2.7 and 16.7 fantasy points. The Broncos’ top receiver caught four passes for 67 yards. It was an incredibly disappointing outing for fantasy managers who surely expected more than 10.7 points from Bo Nix’s WR1 in a game where the Broncos scored 44 points. Unfortunately, this is not the week to expect a bounce back.
The Texans allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Derek Stingley Jr. is one of the league’s premier shutdown corners, and he will be on Sutton. In Week 6, Sauce Gardner limited Sutton to one catch for 17 yards.
Fantasy managers likely cannot bench a guy like Sutton. But he’s definitely more of a WR3 than a WR2 this week.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills (vs. KC)
Coming off their bye week, the Buffalo Bills were clicking on all cylinders. They scored 40 points against the Carolina Panthers. Unfortunately, their sheer dominance rendered Dalton Kincaid irrelevant.
Kinciad played a mere 14 snaps, half of which were of Dawson Knox. While he did run a route on 12 of them, he only drew three targets and caught one ball for 23 yards. Kincaid’s streak of at least serviceable numbers in every game this season came to an end. Unfortunately, this does not project like the week the tight end gets back on track.
We know that Bills-Chiefs games can be high scoring. So often, opponents don’t push the Bills to score more. That’s not going to be the case against Patrick Mahomes and friends.
But throughout his career, Kincaid has never beaten the Chiefs. Here are his lines against Kansas City:
- 5-21
- 5-45
- 2-13
This year, the Chiefs have limited production from tight ends. They are allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to the position.
This is a game where the Bills will likely utilize Josh Allen’s mobility and James Cook’s explosiveness to move the ball. Kincaid is not an appealing option in a bad matchup.
Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots (vs. ATL)
The Atlanta Falcons just got embarrassed by the Miami Dolphins, a team that had just one win before last week. It stands to reason they will be heavily motivated to rebound.
The New England Patriots have been one of the best stories of the season, led by legitimate MVP candidate Drake Maye. As great as Maye has played, though, there is no clear top receiving target on this team. It changes each week.
Sure, Hunter Henry could be that guy on any given Sunday. But he’s coming off a game in which he caught just one pass for seven yards. Granted it was in the end zone, salvaging his fantasy outing, but he’s now seen five targets or fewer in all but two games this season.
The Falcons allow the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Henry will probably get back on track eventually. It’s just unlikely to be this week.
