The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Chicago Bears players heading into their matchup with the Baltimore Ravens to help you craft a winning lineup.
Caleb Williams, QB
We are taking on water.
I wasn’t shy about driving the Caleb Williams ship this summer, and we are taking on water in large quantities.
After seemingly turning a corner early, we are in the midst of a three-game run in which the Year 2 QB has completed under 60% of his passes in each contest and has totaled just 2 touchdown passes.
The rushing that bailed us out at times early? Not as stable as he had hoped: 16 carries for nine yards during this stretch of fantasy flopping.
The worst part? The Bears have won each of those games and four straight overall.
I’m not anti-Bear. That’s a bad thing because this is a results-driven business, and if the results are suitable, the team is naturally less likely to adjust what they are doing in a major way.
The shot plays are down (21.7% deep throw rate in these games compared to 24.7% in the first three), and he’s seemingly accepting the “live to play another down” mantra, having completed just 35.5% of his pressured passes since Week 4.
That’s down from 54.2% prior, but it hasn’t included a turnover, and that seems to be the message: trust our offense and try to limit the superhero desires.
Good for Chicago, bad for us. Very bad.
This will be a good spot to see what we have moving forward. He’s hovering around QB1 status for me because we don’t know exactly how healthy this Ravens defense truly is.
But my antenna is raised.
For now, I have enough buckets and enough help to keep the ship afloat. But as people leave and more water comes on board, this could get tough to save sooner than later unless things change in a meaningful way.
D’Andre Swift, RB
That’s consecutive games north of 100 rushing yards for D’Andre Swift, and with him averaging 3+ yards both before AND after contact in each of those games, I tend to buy what he’s selling us lately.
I was discouraged early by Kyle Monangai getting work on the first drive (including a 14-yard carry) and Roschon Johnson’s number being called on a red zone play, but zoom out, and there’s very little to complain about.
- 20 touches
- 7 red zone touches
- 10+ yards on 26.5% of his carries
Ben Johnson is leaving his imprint on this offense, and I expect things to only get better with time. This is trending toward a career year for Swift, and while the Ravens figure to be in better shape after their bye, I’m not worried about this matchup enough to downgrade Chicago’s lead back in a significant way.
The reflex is to sell a running back after a few good games, but with the bye in the rearview and my lack of concern over the secondary threats, I’m perfectly content to hold my Swift shares for the remainder of this season.
DJ Moore, WR
DJ Moore hasn’t reached 50 receiving yards in a game since Week 1 and hasn’t earned more than six targets in a single game this season after finishing the 2024 season with eight straight games of 7+ targets earned.
Caleb Williams has struggled since the bye, but even when he was playing at a higher level, the veteran receiver was only marginally involved.
The limited volume could stand to be offset if he were using his savvy to separate in scoring situations, but his red zone target rate is trending for a career low. Ben Johnson is having more fun scheming around the specific talents of his young pass catchers and, recently, leaning into the running game.
Things are certainly trending in the wrong direction for Moore. The Ravens’ defense has struggled across the board, and that’s why he remains on the fringe of my top 30 at the position, but he’s far from a must-start.
I’ve got home run threats like Matthew Golden (at PIT), ranked ahead of Moore for Week 8.
Luther Burden III, WR
Remember the last time Luther Burden ran 15+ routes in a football game?
It was in college.
The speedster has yet to get there as a pro, and with Olamide Zaccheaus essentially playing ahead of him, not to mention both tight ends seeing work, there’s not nearly enough meat on this bone to justify holding.
This offense has weekly upside, and Ben Johnson is always capable of crafting up packages, but in a redraft situation, this is a no-fly zone. In a GPP? I could see it as a punt play, as long as you understand the risks at hand.
Rome Odunze, WR
I’ll admit it.
I spent too much time looking at this Rome Odunze profile and trying to figure out exactly what has changed following the bye.
- Weeks 1-4: 2.10 yards per route, 34.1% slot usage, 2.27 points per target
- Weeks 6-7: 1.11 yards per route, 31.7% slot usage, 0.94 points per target
The time spent in the slot is usually my default for drastic swings like this. Those are the layup-type targets that typically fuel fantasy efficiency. That rate isn’t different enough to catch my eye, but what his routes look like when in the slot is where we start to make sense of things.
- Weeks 1-4: 10.3 aDOT when in the slot
- Weeks 6-7: 23.8 aDOT when in the slot
Is Ben Johnson trying to get cute, or is this part of a master plan that could have his second-year receiver thriving with time?
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 8 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
I trust him as an offensive mind and Odunze as a talent, and I believe we’ve lost a few weekly battles lately to win the long-term role, but I certainly wouldn’t mind seeing this role change yield some fruit along the way.
The Ravens have been a mess over the past month against every type of opponent, and, to be honest, things weren’t great when this team was at full strength.
I’m staying the course. His average weekly finish during the first month of the season was WR15, and that’s on the low end of what I’m expecting come Sunday afternoon.
Cole Kmet, TE
A back injury forced Cole Kmet out early over the weekend, but this tight end situation doesn’t look like a committee anymore.
Kmet is a fine player, and the Bears know that. There’s a reason he’s on the roster and continues to get run, but it’s becoming clear that this offense has bigger plans for Colston Loveland as 2025 wears on, and they are coming at the expense of the former Golden Domer.
With no more than a single catch in four of six games this season, I find it unlikely that you need to be advised to cut ties here, but if he’s still on the back-end of your bench … move on.
Colston Loveland, TE
Colston Loveland has run more routes than Kmet in both games since returning to action and was on the field for a robust 67.2% of Chicago’s offensive snaps in the win over the Saints last week (a Kmet back injury factored in, but things were trending in this direction pre-injury as well).
Three catches for 24 yards isn’t exactly the type of explosion that a spike in role like that would point to in an ideal world, but I do think we are gradually moving in the right direction.
Williams has had his ups and downs, but to my eye, he’s starting to buy into this Ben Johnson system, and considering that he had some say in the Bears taking Loveland 10th overall back in April, I feel strongly that the best is yet to come.
I need to see it before ranking him as a starter, but I’m stashing him on my rosters now, understanding that it could pay off massively during the final month of the season.
