Our college football bowl projections ahead of Week 9 include a prediction for the entire playoff and bowl game matchups for every postseason tilt, all powered by our PFSN College Impact metrics and College Football Playoff Meter.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff First Round
- No. 12 South Florida Bulls vs. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs
- No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels
- No. 10 Vanderbilt Commodores vs. No. 7 BYU Cougars
- No. 9 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 8 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
With the Memphis Tigers losing in a shocker to the UAB Blazers, the race for the College Football Playoff took a twist for every Group of Five team hoping to make the 12-team postseason tournament. The battle is incredibly tight, with several key battles to unfold, but currently, the South Florida Bulls lead the way with a 24.3% chance to make the playoff as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are back in the driving seat to land an at-large bid to the playoff, according to our latest college football bowl projections. Securing a win over a ranked USC Trojans team was a massive boost to their chances, while the Navy Midshipmen should be undefeated when they visit South Bend. The rest of the schedule is easily winnable. As teams beat each other ahead of them, that paves the path for the Irish.
MORE: PFSN Midseason All-America College Football Team
After knocking off the LSU Tigers in Week 8, the Vanderbilt Commodores appear to have a path to the playoff that few would have thought possible. When you have Diego Pavia, you have a chance. The Week 9 clash with the Missouri Tigers will be destination-defining, and they have to travel to Austin and Knoxville, but this team shouldn’t flinch at those fixtures.
With the Miami Hurricanes falling to Louisville on Friday night, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets look to be the frontrunner in the race to the ACC Championship Game. Brent Key’s team is disciplined and dangerous, so don’t be surprised to see them match the expectations of our college football bowl projections and still be in meaningful late-December action.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Quarterfinal
- Cotton Bowl: No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No.5 Georgia
- Orange Bowl: No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 7 BYU
- Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 9 Oregon
The PFSN FPM gives Georgia, BYU, Ole Miss, and Oregon the advantage in the first round of the College Football Playoff, setting up some intriguing quarterfinal battles in our college football bowl projections. Who wouldn’t want to watch a repeat of the Alabama vs. Georgia clash we witnessed in late September in the Cotton Bowl? Absolute college football cinema.
The Indiana Hoosiers look unbeatable, and while that could change in a potential Big Ten title game clash with Ohio State, there is a legitimate chance that Curt Cignetti’s team is the second-ranked team in the country come the Sunday selection show. A clash with BYU would give us two of the best defenses in the country facing off in a tantalizing quarterfinal clash.
Although they struggled to overcome the Arkansas Razorbacks on the road in Week 8, the Texas A&M Aggies appear to be in pole position for the race to the SEC Championship Game, where a win would secure them a spot in the Sugar Bowl. The Aggies have often failed to live up to expectations, but things seem different under Mike Elko, and they have the talent to go far.
With Ohio State and Oregon avoiding each other in the regular season, many thought these two would contest the Big Ten title game. However, the Ducks will have to take a different route to a rematch of last year’s Rose Bowl, rebounding from their defeat to Indiana with an easy Week 8 win. Yet, it’s difficult to imagine any other result than a Buckeyes win once more in Pasadena.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Semifinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Alabama
- Peach Bowl: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Ohio State vs. Alabama was the projected College Football National Championship Game in our previous bowl projections, but with the results of Week 8 shaking up the pathways for multiple programs, the two teams are thrown together at the semifinal stage. Ty Simpson vs. Julian Sayin would be a QB battle for the ages, but the Buckeyes’ defense is the X-factor.
Two incredible defenses. Two equally impressive quarterbacks with two different styles. Indiana vs. Texas A&M might not be the first matchup on everyone’s mind when conjuring up a College Football Playoff semifinal, but this would have the potential to be incredibly tasty. It might seem a work of fiction, but this pathway has very genuine potential for both teams.
College Football Bowl Projections | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Indiana
A repeat of the likely Big Ten Championship Game as the College Football National Championship Game? Why not? We’ve seen stranger things happen before, and if it’s good enough for the SEC, it’s sure good enough for our college football bowl projections. On a neutral site, the PFSN FPM gives the Buckeyes a 64.1% chance of winning, with a five-point victory margin.
That would make it the closest title game since the Alabama vs. Georgia matchup that followed the 2017 season.
Projections for the Remaining 2025 College Football Bowl Games
Celebration Bowl
North Carolina Central vs. Jackson State
LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk
Boise State vs. California
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Bowling Green vs. Marshall
Cure Bowl
James Madison vs. East Carolina
68 Ventures Bowl
Central Michigan vs. Coastal Carolina
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Louisiana Tech vs. Troy
Gasparilla Bowl
Memphis vs. UConn
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
UNLV vs. Western Michigan
Boca Raton Bowl
Ohio vs. Utah State
New Orleans Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Western Kentucky
Frisco Bowl
New Mexico vs. Old Dominion
Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii vs. Kennesaw State
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Buffalo vs. Nebraska
Rate Bowl
Kansas vs. Maryland
First Responder Bowl
Temple vs. Clemson
Military Bowl
NC State vs. North Texas
Pinstripe Bowl
Duke vs. Northwestern
Fenway Bowl
Wake Forest vs. Tulane
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Virginia vs. Texas Tech
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
San Diego State vs. Miami (OH)
New Mexico Bowl
Fresno State vs. Arkansas State
Gator Bowl
Louisville vs. Texas
Texas Bowl
Houston vs. Missouri
Birmingham Bowl
Navy vs. South Carolina
Independence Bowl
TCU vs. Arizona
Music City Bowl
Iowa vs. Auburn
Alamo Bowl
Cincinnati vs. Arizona State
ReliaQuest Bowl
Michigan vs. Tennessee
Sun Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. USC
Citrus Bowl
Minnesota vs. Oklahoma
Las Vegas Bowl
Utah vs. Illinois
Armed Forces Bowl
Army vs. Florida International
Liberty Bowl
Iowa State vs. Mississippi State
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Miami (FL) vs. LSU
Holiday Bowl
SMU vs. Washington
Bahamas Bowl
Jacksonville State vs. Toledo
