The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Atlanta Falcons players heading into their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Michael Penix Jr., QB
This is part of the developmental process.
Michael Penix looks a lot like Cam Ward when I turn on the TV, in that there are some plays made at a high level and others missed without much reason.
I thought he showed well for himself in the upset of the Bills last week, but it didn’t really pay off in fantasy points (250 pass yards, one TD, 6 rushing yards).
He was what the Falcons needed, and he continues to load up his talented teammates with as much usage as they can handle. That’s the path to success for Atlanta, but not us.
Penix has just one game with multiple touchdown passes this season and has a total of 16 rushing yards over his past four. Steps are being taken, and that’s good for the long-term fantasy picture.
Bijan Robinson, RB
There are three instances this season in which a player has 140+ rushing yards and 5+ targets: Bijan Robinson is responsible for two of them.
The first was the Week 2 beatdown of the Vikings, and the second was on Monday night against the Bills, a sparkling performance highlighted by an 81-yard touchdown run. Robinson has a 25-yard touch and five targets in every game this season, a role/skill set combination that is as close to bulletproof as it gets.
He’s a highlight waiting to happen: this game is appointment viewing on Sunday night, as we will have one of the best running backs in recent memory on the field essentially at all times.
Tyler Allgeier, RB
I continue to say it: Tyler Allgeier is one of the 32 best running backs in the sport.
That opinion doesn’t really matter with Bijan Robinson on the same roster, but he’s the type of handcuff I like to roster, knowing I’m starting him should an injury occur.
The 21-yard touchdown on the first drive last week came in part because Bijan Robinson was in motion and required attention, but he followed the blocks and cashed in because that’s what good running backs do.
He’s been handed the ball 10+ times in four of five games this season and is someone I’d entertain flexing if you’re stuck with only boom/bust receiver types.
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The 3.5 yards per carry this season is a bit misleading: he’s run into a loaded box on 49.1% of his carries because when he’s in the game (and Robinson is out), there’s less guesswork that goes into what play type is coming.
I think that would change if he ends up with the RB1 role at any point this season, and that’s why I’d rank him as an RB2 in almost any matchup.
As long as Robinson is active and making defenders look silly, Allgeier will sit outside of my top 30 at the position: there’s nothing he can do to earn a greater role within a week.
Darnell Mooney, WR
Darnell Mooney has turned 16 targets into just 79 yards (zero touchdowns) this season, a profile I’m not interested in waiting on.
The sixth-year receiver continues to deal with a hamstring injury that he suffered back in Week 4 (Week 5 bye and a DNP in Week 6), a red flag for players with a clear path to production, not to mention a shaky WR2 in an offense that can be sporadic under Penix.
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I’m not ruling out the idea that Mooney carves out a role that has him earning 5-7 targets weekly, but as it stands now, I’ll let someone else worry about his health.
Suppose there is an opportunity to make an add in the coming weeks, great. If not, I don’t think I’m losing my league because I was slow to act on Atlanta’s WR2.
Drake London, WR
Through five games, Drake London has more catches (34) than any of his teammates have targets, and Darnell Mooney, who has missed 40% of Atlanta’s games this season, remains second on the target leaderboard when it comes to Falcon WRs.
Penix is far from a polished prospect. Still, he seems keenly aware that getting the ball to his high-pedigree teammates is a good way to make a living, and he’s executing (London, Robinson, and Kyle Pitts have accounted for 69.6% of Atlanta targets).
London has earned 10+ targets three times this season, and his monster game on Monday night (10-158-1) grows if a touchdown at the end of the first half doesn’t come off the board.
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The 49ers’ defense is playing well above expectations this season, but they’ve allowed a receiver to clear 15 PPR points in four of six games, and even if Mooney were to return to action, there’s not much debating as to who the most likely player on this team is to check that box.
London is a top 10 play for me this week and not far off of that for the second half of the season as a whole.
Kyle Pitts Sr., TE
With under 40 receiving yards in three of his past four games, at this point, I’d love to tell you that Kyle Pitts is a TD-reliant tight end, but that’s like saying I’m a pickup basketball player who relies on his height.
I’m 5’10”. On a good day.
Pitts has played 66 games across his five seasons, earning 361 targets in the process and scoring just 11 times. If you’re waiting on a single target to get you 7-9 points, more often than not, you’re going to be waiting for all four quarters in that given week.
This, to me at least, looks different than Pitts’ tease runs of years past. His PPR points per target are trending toward a career high, and the efficiency is in a good spot to sustain, given his target diet.
- 2021: 11.2 aDOT
- 2022: 13.7 aDOT
- 2023: 12.0 aDOT
- 2024: 8.7 aDOT
- 2025: 4.9 aDOT
There’s a world in which he’s racking up 5+ catches a week, and that fuels double-digit PPR production every week.
I’m just not sure we are living in that world.
