The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Minnesota Vikings players heading into their matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles to help you craft a winning lineup.
Carson Wentz, QB
Carson Wentz had multiple touchdown passes in two of three starts, but he also threw a pair of picks and was sacked 12 times.
We were under no illusion that he was going to win this job over a potential franchise quarterback in J.J. McCarthy. Still, we were cautiously optimistic that Kevin O’Connell could spin some magic and make him a viable option in the right spot should McCarthy struggle to get back on the field.
No dice.
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I expect the kid back under center this week following the bye, but it doesn’t really matter for this conversation. Wentz can get Justin Jefferson the ball, and that’s great, but he’s not the type of QB I’m trusting with my fantasy fate, even if he were to sit atop this depth chart at another point in time this season.
J.J. McCarthy, QB
McCarthy hasn’t played since suffering an ankle injury in Week 2. While he has more interceptions than touchdowns on his 41 professional passes, there were some fantasy-friendly portions of what we saw before this extended absence.
Not only did he show confidence down the field (9.0 air yards per throw), but he made Jefferson a priority (31.7% target share) and ran for 25 yards in both of his starts. The profile is encouraging, and while he doesn’t need to be rostered in one-QB leagues right now (there’s no way you’re playing him in any of the next three weeks), I’d encourage you to keep an open mind.
He gets to run through the NFC East to open up December (the Commanders in Week 14 before taking the show on the road for the next two weeks against the Cowboys and Giants), favorable spots at a very important time on the fantasy calendar.
There’s no action to take now, but if you told me that you planned to pick him up ahead of the Ravens matchup in Week 10 and wanted to go from there, I’d give it the green light.
Aaron Jones Sr., RB
Aaron Jones has missed the required time after the hamstring injury landed him on IR following the Week 2 loss to the Falcons, and that means he is likely to make this backfield the type of mess we’d rather not deal with.
The 30-year-old Jones wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire pre-injury (13 carries for 46 yards), but he did have a 27-yard touchdown reception in Week 1, and that part of his role is likely waiting for him when he is physically ready.
For my money, Jordan Mason is the running back in Minnesota you want the rest of the way. But I do expect the work to be distributed in a reasonably even fashion in the short term (Mason fumbling in consecutive games certainly helps lend credence to that idea).
Jones has finished at least 10% below his fantasy expectations in four of his past five games and has a PFSN Elusive Rating that has been stuck in reverse for a few years now. Mason is likely to handle the valuable carries, while Jones is the featured RB in the passing game.
The latter could be enough to help him post flex-worthy numbers in a matchup we expect them to be trailing for, but it’s very much a role that carries a wide range of weekly outcomes, and that’s the last thing we want.
Jordan Mason, RB
Personally, I believe that Mason can play at a high level and should be given the keys to this backfield on a full-time basis, even with Jones eligible to return this week, but what I think couldn’t matter less.
Mason put the ball on the ground in both away games before the Week 6 bye, cutting Minnesota’s first drive against the Browns short and seeing Zavier Scott open the next drive as the lead back.
The Vikings did go back to Mason, starting the second half with him, a decision he paid off with a three-yard touchdown, but the fact remains that he’s giving the team a reason to doubt him. We’ve seen in a few situations the less explosive veteran back default into the lead role (cough, cough … Rhamondre Stevenson … Nick Chubb … cough, cough).
I’m assuming Jones is activated this week, and Mason is in a dead-even split.
Gross.
He doesn’t have a 15+-yard gain in consecutive games, and if the touch expectation is going to shrink from 16-18 to 13-15, his status as an RB2 is on thin ice at best. If you need to flex him, I think you’re chasing a touchdown, as the 3+ target role that we’ve seen him hold recently is likely going back to Jones in relatively short order.
Adam Thielen, WR
Adam Thielen was traded to the Vikings to add something to their locker room and maybe a little on-field production early, while Jordan Addison was suspended.
Well, the latter is over, and the former is nice for this team, but meaningless to us. The veteran receiver wasn’t targeted on any of his 11 routes in Week 5 against the Browns prior to the bye and has played under 22% of the offensive snaps since Addison returned.
Thielen is on fantasy rosters for one reason right now, and it’s because his name is known. Don’t make that mistake. There are a dozen players on your waiver wire right now that offer a more favorable range of outcomes moving forward.
Jordan Addison, WR
It feels like a while ago now, but remember Week 5?
We woke up early to watch the Vikings in London, only to see Addison not on the field at all. Those of us who flexed him mourned losing our week before having breakfast: it really was quite the buzzkill before most Sundays even get started.
But after the first quarter, he began seeing the field at his normal rate, and before you know it, he’s hauling in a contested touchdown with 25 seconds left to give the Vikings the win over a stingy Browns team.
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As it turns out, it was a disciplinary thing that held him out early, and while I’d prefer my fantasy players stay out of that sort of trouble, his play on the field was encouraging (five catches for 41 yards and the touchdown on six targets).
During the final three quarters of that victory, he led the Vikings in targets, and while I don’t think he’s any threat to Jefferson’s role as the WR1, let’s not forget that this man has proven himself a touchdown maker.
Most TD receptions by an NFC North player (first 34 career games since 2000):
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Addison (20)
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Jefferson, Greg Jennings, and Roy Williams (19)
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Calvin Johnson and Sam LaPorta (17)
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Kenny Golladay and Jayden Reed (15)
The off-the-field behavior has been sporadic, while the on-the-field stuff has been anything but. His per-target production in two games this season, yardage-wise, is a minor red flag (outside of an 81-yard grab where the Steelers apparently thought he was still suspended, he’s turned 13 targets into just 74 yards), but that’s nitpicking given the QB situation.
Addison is a plenty viable weekly flex based on touchdown equity alone, never mind the potential for a 23-year-old to develop further and find his groove after missing the first three weeks.
Justin Jefferson, WR
Sometimes it just feels like the difficulty settings aren’t turned up high enough when Jefferson is on the field.
From athletic plays to graceful toe taps, he does it all, and the situation doesn’t matter. First-year QB? Veteran with flaws? Tough matchup? Double coverage? None of it matters.
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He’s hit 75+ receiving yards in four straight despite all sorts of moving pieces around him, and while he hasn’t found the end zone in any of those games, it feels close to inevitable.
Through five games, his red zone target rate is only 15.4%. He’s been north of 23% in each of the past four seasons, and I’m plenty comfortable in writing this as a result of a small sample. Once the valuable looks return, Jefferson will again be in the mix for the best fantasy receiver in the game.
T.J. Hockenson, TE
To say that T.J. Hockenson has underwhelmed up to this point would be a bit of an understatement. After being viewed as a strong Tier 2 option during the summer, his only top-15 finish at the position to date came during the one week he found the end zone (Week 3 vs. CIN).
That game included, he’s yet to hit 50 yards or notch a 15-yard reception this season. His predictive numbers suggest he is doing essentially what is expected with the opportunities he’s getting (1.3% below expectations is well within the range of acceptable outcomes); it’s just a quantity issue.
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Entering this season, he’d never been targeted on fewer than 20% of his routes in a season, but through five games, he sits at 16.6%. I don’t think he’s lost his juice, and the changing nature of the QB position certainly factors in.
I want to believe that better days are ahead, but getting the defending Super Bowl champions when they, too, have had a long week of prep, doesn’t exactly look like much of a “get right” spot. Another 4-6 target game with 45 yards seems most likely, and without a ton of TD equity, he’s a fringe TE1 at best.
I’m still not selling my Hock stock until we get past the halfway mark. Give it some time post-bye to see if Kevin O’Connell can unlock him; I think he’s earned that level of trust.
