The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Denver Broncos players heading into their matchup with the New York Giants to help you craft a winning lineup.
Bo Nix, QB
It was far from a masterpiece on Sunday morning for Bo Nix (19-of-30 for 174 yards and one TD against the Jets), but he reached 20 rushing yards for the fourth time in five games and got the Broncos their third straight victory.
Is there a path for him to regain his footing as a set-it-and-forget-it QB?
I think there is, but it’s far from a layup. I’m encouraged by his willingness to spread the ball around (six players had multiple receptions last week), along with the production he is capable of on the ground.
The problem isn’t production windows; it’s consistency over 60 minutes. Nix didn’t have a single yard passing in the third quarter last week, and with multiple pass TDs in just one of his past four, the development as a passer isn’t getting us the numbers we need to make him a lineup lock.
I’m ranking Nix over the streamers of the week, but not by much until we see him produce through the air against a non-Bengals defense (190.2 passing yards per game this season when not playing Cincinnati).
J.K. Dobbins, RB
There’s no competition in this Denver backfield, and that’s what has J.K. Dobbins locked into lineups despite averaging just 3.4 yards per carry thus far in October and having seen no more than two targets in a game this season.
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Without the safety blanket of passing-game involvement, I worry about Dobbins in a spot like this where the defensive front is more the strength than the secondary. That said, he’s averaging more than 15 carries per game, and in a spot where we expect the Broncos to score in the mid-20s, if not higher, he’s still a viable RB2 in all formats.
Courtland Sutton, WR
I’m not sweating it.
Courtland Sutton had as many catches as the Jets had safeties in London last week, a game that most of us would like to forget. The stinker was Sutton’s second dud of the year, but he’s cleared 60 receiving yards in each of the other four, scoring in three of them.
I have concerns about Nix’s consistency as a passer, and while that limits my optimism for this offense as a whole, Sutton is more often than not immune.
The G-men have allowed a receiver to score at least 18 PPR points in five of six weeks, and I like Sutton’s chances to make it six of seven. Opponents have completed half of their deep pass attempts against New York through six weeks, and while Marvin Mims is a threat to see some of those looks, the vast majority of those high-impact targets go to their WR1, and that’s enough to have him labeled as a low-end WR2.
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Evan Engram, TE
Sean Payton is laying breadcrumbs, and I’ll scoop them up.
Evan Engram had three catches in the first quarter against the Jets last weekend. He followed it up with a rush and a reception in succession during the second quarter.
This is what we had dreamed of this offseason, and maybe it’s coming. I’m not fully ready to invest just yet (he had just one catch for the rest of the game and has yet to reach a 50% snap share), but there is at least positive momentum, and that’s worth a ton at this position.
I’m going to continue to rank Engram above the streaming tier and think it’s more likely that he elevates to the next tier up as opposed to falling back into the “how lucky do you feel” tier at the toughest position to feel good about in fantasy sports.
